2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_IMF_and_Infrastructure_Governance_49页_2mb

Botswana Public Investment Management Assessment Summary

Core Content Overview

This report, prepared by the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department in July 2017, evaluates Botswana's public investment management (PIM) system. It outlines trends, efficiency, and institutional structures related to public investment and offers reform recommendations to improve the management and effectiveness of public investments.

Main Trends in Public Investment

• High and Prudent Public Investment: Botswana has maintained consistently high public investment levels over the past 25 years, averaging around 11% of GDP, which has outpaced peer countries and emerging market economies (EMEs). This has been supported by prudent fiscal policy and moderate public debt, which remained at about 10% of GDP.
• Fiscal Policy and Debt Management: The government adheres to a fiscal rule that caps domestic and external borrowing at 20% of GDP each. The total expenditure to GDP ratio is set at 30%, and the capital to recurrent spending ratio is 30/70.
• Capital Stock Growth: Botswana's public capital stock has grown significantly, reaching 125% of GDP by 2015, and is three times higher per capita than peers and EMEs on average.
• Volatility of Investment: Public investment has been relatively volatile, especially influenced by the mining sector. Execution rates of the capital budget have improved, ranging from 73% to 97% of the revised budget.

Composition of Public Investment

• Economic Infrastructure: About 60% of public investment is allocated to economic infrastructure, such as roads, ports, airports, and electricity, which is higher than in EMEs (around 50%).
• Social Infrastructure: Social infrastructure, including housing, hospitals, schools, and social protection, accounts for around 25% of public investment.
• General Services: The remaining 15% is spent on general services.
• Government Structure: Central government accounts for about 65% of public investment, while state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and parastatals contribute approximately 25%, and subnational governments account for less than 10%.

Efficiency and Impact of Public Investment

• Infrastructure Quality Decline: Despite high investment, infrastructure quality has fallen sharply in recent years, particularly in electricity and rail. Botswana's efficiency gap in public investment is 37%, which is higher than EMEs and the global average.
• Inefficient Costing and Appraisal: Many projects, including large ones like the Mohembo bridge, lack rigorous cost-benefit analysis and accurate cost estimation. Cost estimates have sometimes been understated by up to 60%, affecting the medium-term fiscal framework and leading to underfunding of maintenance.
• Underfunding of Maintenance: Recurrent costs for capital projects are often estimated using a rule of thumb, leading to underfunding of maintenance expenses.
• Inadequate Monitoring and Risk Analysis: Project appraisals lack detailed risk analysis, particularly for engineering complexity. There is also a lack of clear criteria for project selection and monitoring, which can lead to funding non-viable projects.

Public Investment Management Institutions

• Planning Institutions: The National Development Plan (NDP) is well-structured and updated regularly, but the planning process lacks robust monitoring of project outcomes.
• Central-Local Coordination: Local governments have limited investment spending, with borrowing allowed up to one-third of previous revenue (excluding grants). However, there is no clear definition of "mega projects" and limited transparency in the role of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MFED) in monitoring large projects.
• Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): While the PPP strategy is comprehensive, it does not apply to SOEs or parastatals. The legal framework for PPPs is underdeveloped, and the PPP unit lacks adequate staff and legal expertise. PPPs are not well integrated into the budgeting process.
• Procurement Framework: The Public Procurement and Asset Disposal Act (PPAD) provides a good framework for transparent procurement, but the process lacks consistency and detailed risk assessment, especially for engineering complexities.

Key Reform Priorities and Recommendations

1. For All Projects

• Distinguish between capital and recurrent spending in the development budget.
• Improve the quality of recurrent cost estimates by assigning responsibility to the recurrent budget unit.
• Publish indicative multi-year estimates for each ministry and project in budget documents.
• Establish a preliminary selection process linked to the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) and prepare project memoranda accordingly.

2. For Large and Mega Projects

• Define clear thresholds for large and mega projects.
• Clarify roles and responsibilities of all public entities involved, including strengthening the MFED’s role in evaluating budget affordability.
• Improve project costing and preparation by implementing a three-phase appraisal process (pre-feasibility, feasibility, and independent review).
• Use international unit costs to guide cost estimates.
• Involve project managers from the beginning of the project and appoint consultants for the medium term.

3. For Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)

• Strengthen the MFED's oversight role in monitoring and assessing PPPs, including reporting data in a budget annex.
• Develop a dedicated legal framework for PPPs or amend the existing PPAD Act to explicitly cover PPPs.
• Increase and train staff in the PPP unit to improve its capacity and effectiveness.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

• Weak Project Appraisal and Monitoring: Inadequate appraisals and lack of clear selection criteria contribute to inefficient project implementation.
• Limited Local Government Investment: Local governments have a small share of public investment and face challenges in managing their budgets effectively.
• Need for Legal and Institutional Strengthening: A formal legal framework for PPPs and improved institutional capacity in the PPP unit are critical for managing fiscal risks.
• Accounting and Asset Management: While a transition to accrual accounting is underway, the current system lacks comprehensive asset accounting and depreciation reporting.

Conclusion

Botswana has a strong foundation in public investment management, with high investment levels and prudent fiscal policy. However, the system faces significant challenges in project appraisal, monitoring, and transparency, particularly in large and PPP projects. Strengthening institutional capacity, improving the legal framework, and enhancing the accuracy of cost and benefit analysis are essential to ensure that public investment leads to sustainable economic growth and efficient infrastructure delivery.