兰德-俄罗斯，北约和黑海安全战略（地缘政治）（英文）-2019.10-18页_195kb

Summary of "Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security Strategy"

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the strategic dynamics in the Black Sea region, focusing on the competition between Russia and the West. It is based on a 2019 workshop organized by the RAND Corporation, the German Marshall Fund (GMF) of the United States, and the Aspen Institute Romania, bringing together 24 experts and former officials from Europe and the United States. The workshop examined four key areas: Russia's strategy in the Black Sea, its military and soft-power tools, Western goals and interests, and the elements of a sustainable Western strategy.

Main Points

Russia's Strategy in the Black Sea Region

• The Black Sea is a central component of Russia's broader strategy to restore influence and control along its periphery, which it lost after the Soviet Union's collapse.
• Russia aims to keep neighboring states in a state of nonalignment or insecurity, making them susceptible to Russian economic, political, and malign influence.
• The region is viewed as a strategic gateway to the vulnerable parts of Russia and a critical area for military power projection into the Eastern Mediterranean and the Levant.
• Russia's occupation and militarization of Crimea have significantly enhanced its leverage and power projection capabilities.
• Russia seeks to transform the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov into virtual internal waterways, similar to its control over the Caspian Sea.

Russian Military and Soft-Power Instruments

• Military Developments: Russia has deployed advanced systems such as the S-400 Triumph and Bastion coastal defense missiles in Crimea and the Black Sea. These systems are part of a broader effort to establish an Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) network.
• Soft-Power Tools: Russia uses propaganda, media influence, and hybrid tactics to undermine transatlantic unity. It exploits governance weaknesses, media ownership, and financial ties to spread its narrative.
• Hybrid Threats: Russia employs a mix of military and nonmilitary actions, including cyberattacks and information warfare, to shape the regional environment and test Western resolve.
• Propaganda Tactics: Russian media outlets like Sputnik and RT use sensationalism, biased reporting, and historical manipulation to influence public opinion. In some countries, such as Georgia and Moldova, Russian media has a significant presence and impact.

Western Goals and Interests

• Western countries seek to counter Russian influence and protect the sovereignty and security of Black Sea littoral states.
• There is a shared interest in preventing Russian military aggression and ensuring regional stability.
• The Western strategy must address both the military and nonmilitary dimensions of Russian threats, including information operations and hybrid warfare.

Elements of a Western Strategy

• A credible military deterrent is necessary, but does not need to match Russia in scale. Enhanced NATO exercises, advanced air and coastal defense systems in Romania and Bulgaria, and continued support for Ukraine and Georgia's defense capabilities are recommended.
• Countering Russian information operations is critical to maintaining transatlantic unity and preventing the spread of disinformation.
• Regional states have overlapping and divergent interests, which complicates the development of a unified Western strategy. For example, Romania focuses on maintaining its Western orientation, while Bulgaria is more concerned about Turkey and migration issues.

Key Information

• Russia's Influence: Russia has used military force and hybrid tactics to assert control over the Black Sea region, including Crimea, the Sea of Azov, and Georgia.
• Regional Tensions: The region is marked by clashing interests and growing tensions, but not by widespread war due to Russia's ability to achieve its goals through nonmilitary means.
• Turkey's Role: Turkey's strategic position has been weakened by Russian military presence in Syria and its growing dependence on Russian energy. This has led to a more nationalist and less Western-oriented foreign policy.
• Moldova's Dilemma: Moldova seeks to balance European integration with minimizing tensions with Russia, particularly regarding the status of Transnistria.
• Ukraine's Vulnerability: Ukraine is particularly vulnerable to Russian aggression in the maritime domain, and has shifted its strategic focus toward EU and NATO membership.
• Azerbaijan's Approach: Azerbaijan maintains a cautious relationship with Russia, avoiding direct competition in the energy sector and focusing on economic development instead.

Conclusion

The Black Sea region remains a focal point in the broader Russia-West strategic competition. A coherent and sustainable Western strategy must address both the military and informational dimensions of Russian influence. While regional states have distinct interests, a unified approach is essential to counter Russian aggression and ensure long-term security and stability in the area.