2015年-世界发展银行全球_Commodity_Markets_Outlook_July_2015_72页_4mb

Commodity Markets Outlook - July 2015 Summary

Core Content

The July 2015 Commodity Markets Outlook report from the World Bank provides an analysis of global commodity price trends and forecasts for the remainder of 2015 and into 2016. It highlights the significant role of China and India in shaping global commodity demand, particularly in energy and metals, and examines how their consumption patterns have evolved over time.

Main Views and Key Information

Commodity Price Trends in Q2 2015

• Energy prices rose by 12% due to increased demand and expected supply tightening.
• Crude oil prices rebounded early in the quarter but later weakened due to a global surplus.
• Non-energy commodity prices fell by 2% in Q2 2015, with a continued decline in all main indices.
• Metals prices declined marginally, with iron ore experiencing the largest drop, down two-thirds from its 2011 peak.
• Agricultural prices fell by 2.6%, mainly due to abundant supply and high stock levels.
• Fertilizer prices declined by almost 4%, driven by weak demand and ample supply.

Price Forecasts for 2015 and 2016

• Energy prices are projected to fall 12% in 2015, averaging 39% below 2014 levels.
• Non-energy prices are expected to decline by 12% in 2015, with metals falling 17% and agriculture by 11%.
• Crude oil is forecast to average $57/bbl in 2015, up from the previous projection of $53/bbl.
• Gold is expected to fall to $1,156/toz in 2015, down more than 2%.
• Grains are projected to decline by 9.4% in 2015, with edible oils and meals down 18%.
• Fertilizer prices are expected to fall by 5% in 2015.

Risks to Forecasts

• Downside risks for energy include increased non-OPEC production and OPEC output.
• Upside risks include early closure of high-cost operations and supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors.
• Metals face risks from slower Chinese demand and tightening environmental regulations.
• Agricultural prices face risks from weather conditions and El Niño, but trade restrictions are unlikely due to well-supplied markets.

Special Focus: China and India in Global Commodity Markets

Importance in Commodity Consumption

• China and India were key drivers of the commodity super-cycle (2000–2014), especially in metals and energy.
• China accounted for 50% of global coal consumption, and India for 9%.
• China consumed 47% of global metals, while India contributed 3.5%.
• China and India's agricultural consumption grew in line with global averages, with their share of world consumption unchanged at around 22% and 10%, respectively.

Diverging Contributions

• The divergence in commodity demand is attributed to different growth models and income elasticities.
• Industrial production has a strong correlation with energy and metals consumption.
• China's industrial-led growth contributed significantly to metals and energy demand, while India's slower industrial growth led to modest increases.
• Population growth and income growth are the main determinants of agricultural commodity demand.

Future Outlook

• If China catches up to OECD levels of per capita consumption, demand for metals, oil, and coal could remain strong.
• India's growth is expected to sustain above 7% until 2017, which could increase energy and metals consumption.
• China's population growth is expected to decline to 0.3% per year, while India's will grow at 1%.
• As a result, agricultural commodity consumption in both countries is expected to remain close to world average.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that China and India have been central to the commodity super-cycle, especially in metals and energy, due to their industrial growth and rising incomes. However, as population growth slows and growth models shift, the pressure on food commodity prices is expected to ease, while energy and metals demand may still remain strong, depending on their per capita consumption trends.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1 and Figure 2 show commodity price indices for the period.
• Table 1 provides actual and forecasted price indices for 2010–2016.
• Table F.1 compares consumption growth in China, India, and the rest of the world during the commodity price boom (2001–2012).
• Figures F.2–F.13 illustrate commodity consumption trends and growth models for both countries.

Acknowledgments

The report was authored by John Baffes (Special Focus and Agriculture), Shane Streifel (Energy, Metals, Precious Metals, and Fertilizers), and Xinghao Gong and Betty Dow (price data and Annex tables). It was edited by Graeme Littler and Mark Felseenthal, with Tito Cordella reviewing the content. Phillip Jeremy Hay, Vamsee Krishna Kanchi, and Mikael Reventar managed media relations and dissemination.

Data and Access

• The report uses data up to July 21, 2015.
• It is published quarterly and can be accessed at www.worldbank.org/commodities.
• For inquiries, contact commodities@worldbank.org.