2017年-世界发展银行全球_Commodity_Markets_Outlook_January_2017___Investment_Weakness_in_Commodity_Exporting_Countries_82页_1mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Commodity Markets Outlook report from the World Bank, published in January 2017, provides an analysis of global commodity markets, focusing on energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals, and precious metals. It also includes a Special Focus on the investment weakness in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The report forecasts commodity prices up to 2030 and includes historical data and supply-demand balances.

Main Views and Key Information

Commodity Market Trends

• Energy prices rose significantly in the fourth quarter of 2016, with a 11% increase in all fuel types. Coal prices surged 38% due to strong demand and supply constraints in China, while natural gas prices increased 8% globally, with notable gains in Australia from LNG production outages.
• Crude oil prices are forecast to rise to $55 per barrel in 2017 and $60 per barrel in 2018, following production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
• Non-energy commodity prices are expected to increase by 3% in 2017, the first increase in six years for both metals and agricultural prices.
• Metals prices are projected to rise 11% in 2017 due to supply constraints, particularly in lead and zinc, caused by mine closures in Australia, Canada, and Ireland.
• Agricultural prices are expected to remain stable in 2017, with slight increases in oils and meals and raw materials, but declines in grains due to improved supply outlook in Central Asia, Europe, and North America.
• Precious metals prices are forecast to decline in 2017 due to rising interest rates and reduced safe-haven demand.

Investment Weakness in Commodity Exporters

Investment Trends

• Investment growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs has declined sharply since 2010, from 7.1% to 1.6% in 2015.
• Investment growth has been below the long-term average in about two-thirds of these economies in 2015.
• Private investment accounted for 78% of total investment in commodity-exporting EMDEs during 2010–2015.

Sources of Investment Slowdown

• Weak GDP growth prospects: Output growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs dropped from 8.9% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2015, far below the pre-crisis average of 11.5%.
• Worsening terms of trade: Commodity price declines led to a 4% average deterioration in terms of trade since 2011, with oil exporters seeing a 21% drop.
• Rapid credit growth and debt overhang: Private credit increased by nearly 20% of GDP from 2000 to 2015, and credit booms since 2010 have been investment-less.
• Heightened uncertainty: Political instability and policy uncertainty have contributed to the investment slowdown, with a 10% increase in VIX associated with a 0.5% decline in investment growth.

Policy Recommendations

• Macroeconomic policies: Fiscal and monetary stimulus may not be effective due to low commodity prices, reduced government revenues, and inflation above target. Limited fiscal space and high external debt restrict policy flexibility.
• Structural reforms: Crucial for improving business environments, encouraging economic diversification, and enhancing governance. These reforms can attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and boost public and private investment.
• Investment in non-resource sectors: Needed to transition from resource-driven growth to more sustainable sources and to improve productivity.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Commodity price indexes, monthly (2013–2016).
• Figure 2: World oil balance and oil price (2013–2016).
• Figure F1: Actual and 5-year-ahead forecasts of investment growth (2010–2015).
• Figure F2: Investment growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs (2010–2015).
• Figure F3: Countries with investment growth below long-term average (2010–2015).
• Figure F4: GDP growth (2013–2016).
• Figure F5: Growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs (2010–2015).
• Figure F6: Price and TOT change: 2011Q1–2016Q3.
• Figure F7: Investment surge during credit booms (2010–2015).
• Figure F8: VIX impact on EMDE investment growth.
• Figure F9: Government debt and fiscal balance (2010–2016).
• Figure F10: Sovereign wealth fund assets, 2016.
• Figure F11: Total external debt, 2015.
• Table 1: Nominal price indexes and forecast revisions (2013–2018).

Outlook and Risks

• Energy and non-energy price indexes are projected to increase by 26% and 3% in 2017, respectively.
• Upside risks for energy prices include stronger demand and unexpected production cuts.
• Downside risks for agricultural prices include adverse weather conditions in East Asia and South America, and higher energy costs.
• Precious metals are expected to decline due to rising interest rates and reduced safe-haven demand.
• Investment risks include continued low commodity prices, policy uncertainty, and weak growth prospects.

Conclusion

The report highlights the investment weakness in commodity-exporting EMDEs, emphasizing the need for structural reforms and policy coordination to stimulate investment and growth. While commodity prices are expected to rise in 2017, the underlying challenges in these economies remain significant, requiring long-term strategies to ensure sustainable development.