2016年-世界发展银行全球_Commodity_Markets_Outlook_July_2016___From_Energy_Prices_to_Food_Prices_80页_1mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary (July 2016)

Core Content

The Commodity Markets Outlook report for July 2016 provides an analysis of global commodity price trends and forecasts for the period 2016–2025. It highlights the interplay between energy prices and food prices, as well as the broader dynamics in agricultural, fertilizer, metal, and mineral markets.

Main Commodity Price Trends

Energy Prices

• Energy prices surged in the second quarter of 2016, with oil prices rising over 30%.
• Oil prices averaged $47.70 per barrel in June 2016, up 37% from the first quarter.
• The rebound in oil prices was due to supply disruptions in key producing countries like Canada, Nigeria, Kuwait, Iraq, and Libya, which collectively reduced output by up to 2.5 million barrels per day.
• Natural gas prices declined by 5% in the second quarter, particularly in Europe and Asia, due to weak demand and surplus supplies. However, U.S. gas prices rose due to increased demand and exports.
• Coal prices increased by 2% due to tight supply and strong demand in China.

Non-Energy Commodity Prices

• Non-energy commodity prices rose by 7% in the second quarter, led by agriculture.
• Agricultural prices increased by 8%, driven by poor harvests in South America (grains and soybeans) and East Asia (palm oil).
• Metals prices rose by 5%, with gains in iron ore, zinc, and tin due to production cuts and stronger demand.
• Precious metals prices increased by 8%, mainly due to strong investor demand and concerns about global growth.
• Fertilizer prices fell by nearly 7%, attributed to weak demand and surplus production capacity.

2016 Outlook and Risks

• Energy prices are expected to decline by 16% in 2016, with average oil prices at $43 per barrel, up from $41 per barrel in the April assessment.
• Non-energy commodity prices are forecasted to drop by 4%, with agricultural prices slightly revised upward but still expected to fall marginally from 2015 levels.
• Food prices are projected to average 26% below 2011 highs, with a 32% price decline for grains and soybeans between 2011 and 2016, of which one-third is attributed to falling energy prices.
• Oils and meals are expected to rise by 3%, while grains and raw materials are projected to decline by 4% and 2%, respectively.
• Upside risks to food prices include the intensification of La Niña weather patterns, which could affect commodities like maize and wheat.
• Downside risks include increased agricultural subsidies, which may boost supply and lower prices.

Special Focus: Energy Prices and Food Prices

• Energy prices fell by 45% in 2015 and are projected to fall another 16% in 2016, significantly impacting food production costs.
• Lower energy prices reduce the cost of producing food commodities and ease policy pressures to promote biofuels, which have been a major driver of food demand growth.
• The energy-biofuel-food price link operates through two main channels:
  1. Fuel costs: Energy constitutes 10–15% of agricultural production costs, which is 4–5 times the energy intensity of manufacturing.
  2. Biofuel policies: Biofuels divert food commodities to energy production, increasing demand. The U.S. and Brazil are the largest producers of biofuels, with maize-based ethanol accounting for 49% of global biofuel production.
• The impact of oil price changes on food prices is estimated to be twice as significant as the impact of crop conditions, based on elasticity estimates from a reduced-form model.

Key Drivers of Food Prices

• Oil prices are a major cost component and have a significant elasticity on food prices (average 0.19).
• Stock-to-use ratios are a key indicator of crop conditions and biofuel policies, with a negative elasticity of -0.33.
• Exchange rates and interest rates have a weaker impact on food prices, with interest rate effects being statistically insignificant or small.
• Dollar appreciation tends to lower food commodity prices, as it reduces the value of commodities in other currencies.
• GDP growth leads to a decline in food prices relative to manufactured goods, as per Engel's Law.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the energy-intensive nature of agriculture makes energy prices a critical factor in determining food prices. The decline in energy prices has played a significant role in the post-2011 price weakness in food commodities, contributing up to one-third of the projected 32% price drop for grains and soybeans. As energy prices continue to fall, the cost of food production is expected to decrease, and biofuel demand may ease, potentially reducing upward pressure on food prices.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Commodity price indexes (monthly)
• Figure 2: Commodity price indexes (annual)
• Figure F1: Energy and agriculture price indexes
• Figure F2: The energy-biofuel-food price link
• Figure F3: Cost of energy component
• Figure F4: Global biofuels production
• Figure F5: Global stock-to-use ratios
• Figure F6: Contribution to explained price variation
• Table 1: Nominal price indexes (actual and forecasts) and forecast revisions

Data and Forecast Cutoff

• The cutoff date for data used in the report was July 22, 2016.
• The report provides price forecasts to 2025 for 46 commodities.
• Commodity price data updates are published separately at the beginning of each month.