20131015-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_12页_1008kb

Investment Daily Note Summary - 15 October 2013

Core Content Overview

This document provides an investment summary for the Hong Kong and global markets on 15 October 2013. It covers stock performance, market indices, economic data, exchange rates, commodity prices, and company valuations.

Key Market Movements

• U.S. Debt Ceiling Extension: The U.S. Republicans agreed to extend the debt ceiling deadline by six weeks, leading to a rally in the Hang Seng Index (HSI), which closed at 23,218, up 267 points.
• Global Market Rally: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 rose due to positive expectations of a U.S. debt deal. The HSI is expected to test resistance at 23,500.
• HSI and HSCEI Performance: The HSI closed at 23,218 with a 1.2% daily increase, while the HSCEI closed at 10,580 with a 1.2% gain.
• Market Turnover: The HSI had a market turnover of HK$59.1 billion, indicating active trading.
• Smartphone Sector Outlook: The smartphone device sector is highlighted as a stock pick due to potential growth from 4G licenses and increased sales.

Stock Highlights

• Ju Teng: The company's gross margin widened to 18.4% in the first half of 2013, and it is expected to benefit from new product launches in the second half. The recommendation is to buy at HK$4.90 with a target of HK$5.35 and a stop-loss at HK$4.46.
• FIH Mobile: The company is expected to benefit from the smartphone market, with a recommendation to buy at HK$4.45, targeting HK$5.00 and a stop-loss at HK$4.00.
• China Comm Services: The company's share price broke out of a downtrend with heavy volume, and the recommendation is to buy with a target of HK$5.37 and a stop-loss at HK$4.60.

Economic Data and Events

• China's Economic Indicators (October 15):
  • Foreign Reserves: HK$3525.0B (up from HK$3496.7B)
  • New Yuan Loans: 674.0B (down from 711.3B)
  • Money Supply M0 YoY: 9.4% (up from 9.3%)
  • Money Supply M1 YoY: 9.7% (down from 9.9%)
  • Money Supply M2 YoY: 14.0% (down from 14.7%)
  • Aggregate Financing RMB: 1300.0B (down from 1570.0B)
• Other Global Events:
  • U.S. Empire Manufacturing: 8.00 (up from 6.29)
  • Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation: 30.6
  • Germany ZEW Survey Expectations: 49.6
  • U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls: 178K (up from 169K)
  • U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.3% (unchanged from previous)
  • U.S. Construction Spending: 0.4% (down from 0.6%)
  • U.S. Trade Balance: -$39.5B (down from -$39.1B)
  • U.S. Factory Orders: 0.3% (up from -2.4%)
  • U.S. Wholesale Inventories: 0.3% (up from 0.1%)

Market Data

• Best Performers:
  • Zoomlion (1157.HK): 7.400 HK$, 4.2% gain
  • Sinopharm (1099.HK): 21.300 HK$, 3.6% gain
  • China Comm Cons (1800.HK): 6.270 HK$, 3.3% gain
  • FE Horizon (3360.HK): 5.590 HK$, 2.6% gain
  • Tencent (700.HK): 419.000 HK$, 2.2% gain
• Worst Performers:
  • Yuexiu Property (123.HK): 2.190 HK$, -3.1% decline
  • Esprit (330.HK): 12.760 HK$, -1.8% decline
  • Zijin Mining (2899.HK): 1.770 HK$, -1.1% decline
  • China COSCO (1919.HK): 3.860 HK$, -1.0% decline
  • COSCO Pacific (1199.HK): 11.680 HK$, -1.0% decline

Exchange Rates

• USD/HKD: 7.7546 (no change)
• EUR/USD: 1.3553 (-0.1%)
• GBP/USD: 1.5966 (-0.7%)
• USD/JPY: 98.5800 (+1.8%)
• AUD/USD: 0.9518 (+1.0%)
• NZD/USD: 0.8372 (+1.0%)
• USD/CAD: 1.0347 (-0.2%)
• USD Index: 80.3730 (+0.4%)

Energy and Raw Material Prices

• Gold: USD$1,269.0 (-3.8%)
• Silver: USD$21.3 (-4.6%)
• Aluminum: USD$1,870.0 (+0.8%)
• Copper: USD$7,255.0 (+0.1%)
• Hot Roll Steel: USD$530.0 (no change)
• Cotton: USD$88.2 (+3.4%)
• CRB Index: 287.5 (no change)
• Brent: USD$111.3 (+1.7%)
• WTI: USD$102.4 (-0.6%)

Major Index Valuations and Estimated Earnings Growth

Companies Listed on Both A-share and H-share Markets

Summary

The market rally in the HSI and other global indices was driven by positive expectations of a U.S. debt ceiling deal, which reduced short-term default risk. The smartphone sector is highlighted as a potential growth area, with companies like Ju Teng and FIH Mobile showing positive momentum. Economic data from China and the U.S. indicated mixed performance, with some indicators showing improvement and others declining. Exchange rates and commodity prices also showed varied movements, with gold and silver declining while copper and cotton showed some gains. The document provides detailed recommendations for specific stocks and highlights their performance and potential.