2024-05-20-IEA-2024年Q2全球天然气市场报告_59页_2mb

Gas Market Report Q2-2024 Summary

Market Stability and Prices:

• Global natural gas markets remained relatively calm through the 2023/24 Northern Hemisphere heating season due to unseasonably mild weather and improving supply fundamentals.
• Asian and European spot gas prices fell to pre-crisis levels in Q1 2024, while U.S. Henry Hub prices reached multi-decade lows.
• Prices declined across all key markets in Q1 2024 amid mild weather and high storage levels.

Demand Growth:

• Global gas demand is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2024, primarily driven by fast-growing Asian markets, especially industry and power sectors.
• Industrial gas demand is expected to account for nearly 45% of incremental demand.
• Mature markets (Japan, Korea) saw demand declines amid stronger renewable and nuclear energy.

Supply and Storage:

• High storage levels (well above five-year averages) are expected to ease market fundamentals further during summer 2024.
• Global LNG supply growth is minimal at 3% due to limited new projects and outages.
• Europe’s LNG imports declined by 12% y-o-y, while piped gas exports from Russia increased by 25% amid geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitical Risks:

• LNG trade through the Red Sea and Suez Canal disruptions impacted shipping and flows.
• Ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia add risk to supply security.

Low-Emissions Gases:

• Demand for biomethane, low-emissions hydrogen, and e-methane is growing, supported by policy mandates and blending obligations.
• Key regions have set blending targets for biomethane (e.g., India's 5% compressed biomethane in CNG by 2025/26).
• Challenges remain in matching supply commitments with demand-side policies.

Key Trends:

• Unseasonably mild weather limited gas demand growth in key markets.
• Asia (China, India) drives global demand growth, with LNG imports expanding due to low prices.
• Europe is transitioning toward renewables and nuclear, reducing gas demand in power and residential sectors.