2024-10-13-IEA-2024年全球天然气安全评估（英）-93份_93页_11mb

Global Gas Security Review 2024 Summary

Market Trends

• Global Gas Demand: Natural gas demand grew significantly in 2024 and 2025, reaching record highs. Asia, particularly China and India, drove the majority of the growth, with industry and energy self-use being primary contributors.
• LNG Supply Constraints: Global LNG supply growth remained weak in 2024 but is expected to accelerate in 2025 due to new projects in North America (e.g., US Plaquemines and Tortue FLNG). Geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions (e.g., Red Sea and Panama Canal) exacerbated supply tightness.

Supply and Security

• Key Events: Gas price volatility persisted due to supply shocks, extreme weather (e.g., Winter Storm Heather in the US, El Niño in Colombia), and LNG shipping bottlenecks. Europe’s reliance on Russian gas transit via Ukraine remains a major uncertainty for the 2024/25 winter.
• Storage Levels: Q3 2024 saw high storage levels in key regions (e.g., US and EU), providing a buffer for winter demand. European storage reached 94% capacity by early October.

LNG Market Dynamics

• Contracting Trends: Long-term contracts dominated the market, but destination-flexible contracts increased to 51% of trade by 2027, driven by diversification and market liquidity. Portfolio players (e.g., private companies) increased their role in providing supply flexibility.
• Price Volatility: Asian spot LNG prices surged in 2024, widening the gap with European hub prices. Tight supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical risks sustained price differences.

Low-Emissions Gases

• Decarbonization Role: Biomethane (RNG) is leading decarbonization in transport (e.g., US and EU), with significant emission reductions. Hydrogen and e-methane are emerging in transport and industrial applications but remain limited to niche markets.
• Infrastructure Integration: Existing gas infrastructure facilitates the injection of e-methane and biomethane, reducing social costs and enabling global trade.

Policy and Outlook

• Energy Security: Geopolitical risks and supply constraints necessitate flexible supply mechanisms, such as enhanced LNG storage, interconnectivity, and voluntary gas reserve schemes.
• 2025 Outlook: LNG supply growth is expected to slow due to project delays, increasing competition for flexible cargoes. Europe and Asia are key drivers of demand, but sanctions and supply uncertainties could limit market stability.

In summary, while global gas demand continues to grow, supply security faces challenges from geopolitical tensions, project delays, and market volatility. Enhancing flexibility and low-emissions alternatives is critical for future energy transitions.