2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kyrgyz_Republic_Medium_57页_1mb

Summary of Kyrgyz Republic: Medium-Term Development Program—Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (April 2012)

Core Content

This document outlines the Medium-Term Development Program (2012–2014) of the Kyrgyz Republic, which aims to enhance economic growth, poverty reduction, and sustainable development through comprehensive reforms in governance, social policy, and economic management.

Main Goals and Objectives

• Main Goal: Increase the living standard of the population and reduce poverty through economic growth, improvement of the business environment, and development of an efficient governance system.
• Key Objectives:
  • Reform of public administration and formation of a compact government.
  • Reduction of public expenditures and increase of revenues.
  • Accelerated development of the economy through the implementation of new national projects.
  • Effective management of public assets.
  • Reform of licensing, permitting, and control-supervisory systems.
  • Reform in the social and security sectors.
  • Reform of the judicial system.

Economic Development

Macroeconomic Policy

• The Government aims to improve the macroeconomic environment by ensuring stability, predictability, and flexibility.
• Inflation control is a key priority, with the target to keep inflation below 10% during 2012–2014.
• The floating exchange rate will be maintained, with interventions on the inter-banking currency market to reduce volatility.
• Investment climate will be restored through flexible regulation, predictable legislation, and reduction of administrative barriers.
• The Program is expected to lead to real GDP growth of 7.5% annually.

Fiscal Policy

• The Tax Code was updated in 2009, reducing tax rates and simplifying the system, which led to an increase in tax revenues.
• Despite these efforts, the tax-to-GDP ratio remains low at 19.4%, and challenges include uneven tax burden, excessive privileges, corruption, and lack of modern technology.
• The Government plans to optimize tax preferences, simplify tax administration, and introduce new taxes such as a windfall profits tax on gold mining and increased sales tax on the communications sector.
• Public finance management is being reformed to improve budget discipline, transparency, and efficiency.
• The Budget Code is being developed to ensure an efficient and transparent system of public finance management.

State Debt and Asset Management

• The State Debt Administration Strategy focuses on revising and updating the public finance management system.
• The objective is to ensure reliable budget provision, improve supervision and control, and align policy priorities with planning.
• Asset management includes nationalization of 47 illegally privatized objects to restore property interests.

Key Economic Sectors

• Energy: Focus on improving infrastructure and energy security.
• Mining: Develop sustainable practices and ensure legal and transparent operations.
• Agriculture and processing: Modernize the sector to increase productivity and competitiveness.
• Processing industry: Promote industrial development and diversification.
• Construction: Increase investment in infrastructure through new projects.
• Tourism: Develop tourism as a key sector for economic growth.
• Trade: Enhance domestic and foreign trade by improving infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.
• Transport and Communication: Improve transport networks and communication systems to support economic activities.

Governance and Institutional Reforms

• Public Service Reform: Includes assessment of government institutions, reform of working conditions, and transparency in resource allocation.
• Administrative and territorial reform: Aimed at improving efficiency and reducing bureaucracy.
• Combating corruption: Requires institutional reforms, anti-corruption programs, and transparency in tax and customs services.
• Legislative reform: Focus on creating a more effective and transparent legal framework.

Social Development and Poverty Reduction

• Poverty incidence increased from 31.7% to 33.7% due to the 2009 global crisis and 2010 political events.
• The Government has increased salaries for teachers and health workers, and pensions by 30%.
• Social protection needs to be more targeted and effective to support vulnerable groups.
• Pension reform, education system development, healthcare improvements, and labor market reforms are emphasized.
• Gender equality and cultural and religious aspects are also included in the development strategy.

Post-Conflict Regulation

• The 2010 political events caused significant social and economic disruption, especially in the south.
• The Government has taken steps to rebuild infrastructure, restore trust, and promote reconciliation.
• The Concept of Ethnical Policy was introduced to ensure unity and peace among ethnic groups.
• The Year of Family, Peace, Harmony and Mutual Forgiveness was declared to foster social cohesion.
• The policy includes equal participation of ethnic groups in governance and economic activities, and non-discriminatory approaches in employment and business.

External and Internal Conditions

• External favorable conditions:
  • Growth in the world economy and main trading partners (Russia and Kazakhstan).
  • Controlled inflation in major trading partners.
  • Forecasted growth in gold prices.
• External unfavorable factors:
  • Increase in global food and oil prices.
  • Restrictions on exports due to the Customs Union.
• Internal favorable conditions:
  • Governance optimization.
  • Restoration of trade infrastructure in the south.
  • Creation of a favorable business environment.
  • Attraction of foreign investment.
• Internal unfavorable factors:
  • Risk of capital and labor outflow.
  • Growth of the shadow economy.
  • Food security risks due to global price increases and internal tensions.
  • Climate risks affecting agriculture.

Expected Results

• The Program aims to achieve an average annual GDP growth of 7.5%.
• Tax revenues are expected to increase significantly, with a tax-to-GDP ratio reaching 19.4%.
• Private investment is projected to rise from 21.9% to 28.8% of GDP.
• Public consumption will decrease from 17.8% to 16.4% of GDP.
• Budget deficit is expected to reduce from 5.7% in 2012 to 2.6% in 2014.

Conclusion

The Medium-Term Development Program is a comprehensive strategy aimed at rebuilding the economy, reducing poverty, and enhancing governance in the Kyrgyz Republic. It emphasizes transparency, efficiency, and sustainable development, with a focus on institutional reform, economic diversification, and social protection. The program is expected to contribute to macroeconomic stability, investment growth, and social cohesion in the country.