2009年-世界发展银行全球_The_Impact_of_Remittances_on_Growth_Evidence_from_North_African_Countries_55页_808kb

Summary of "The Impact of Remittances on Growth: Evidence from North African Countries"

Core Content

This paper explores the impact of remittances on economic growth in North African countries, focusing on the region's migration trends and the macroeconomic implications of remittance inflows. It highlights the complexity and controversy surrounding the relationship between remittances and growth, emphasizing the need for more accurate data and a better understanding of the mechanisms through which remittances influence economic outcomes.

Main Points

1. Global and Regional Remittance Trends

• Global Growth: Remittances to middle- and low-income countries increased from $31 billion in 1990 to $232 billion in 2005, and further to $251 billion in 2007.
• North Africa's Role: North Africa is a significant recipient of remittances, accounting for a notable share of global flows. The region receives about 10% of global remittances and sends 20%.
• Per Capita Impact: North Africa ranks second globally in terms of per capita remittances and first in terms of remittances as a percentage of GDP.

2. Migration Patterns in North Africa

• Emigration Trends: North African countries have high emigration rates, with over half of their migrants in Europe. In 2000, North Africa had 7.4 million emigrants, representing a 5.5% emigration rate of the population.
• Major Destinations:
  • Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia: Mainly migrate to France.
  • Egypt: Mainly migrate to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries.
• Migration Corridors: Two main corridors exist:
  • One from Egypt and surrounding regions to Gulf countries due to labor demand.
  • One from the Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia) to Western Europe, driven by post-war industrial booms and guest-worker programs.
• Future Projections: With a young and increasingly educated labor force, migration is expected to grow, leading to higher remittance inflows. This trend may reverse the declining remittance trend observed in the past decade.

3. Economic Importance of Remittances

• Foreign Exchange and Hard Currency: Remittances are a major source of foreign exchange, surpassing other financial inflows like ODA and FDI in several North African countries.
• Morocco's Case: In 2007, inward remittance flows in Morocco were five times higher than ODA and more than one and a half times the size of FDI.
• Algeria's Case: Remittances in Algeria, although a small share of GDP, were still higher than the combined ODA and FDI.
• Remittances as a Percentage of Exports: In Morocco, remittances reached about 41% of merchandise exports in recent years.

4. Macroeconomic Impacts of Remittances

• Controversial Relationship: The academic literature is divided on whether remittances positively or negatively affect economic growth.
• Potential Effects:
  • Positive: Some studies suggest a mild positive impact on long-term growth.
  • Negative: Others argue that remittances are counter-cyclical, decreasing as income growth increases.
• Other Impacts:
  • May reduce poverty but increase inequality.
  • Can enhance savings and investment but also raise consumption and inflation.
  • Improve creditworthiness but may cause a Dutch Disease effect, reducing export competitiveness.
  • Encourage entrepreneurship but may deter employment of local workers.

5. Limitations of Data

• Measurement Challenges: The causality between remittances and growth is difficult to establish due to complex and simultaneous channels of impact.
• Data Scarcity: Reliable and harmonized data on migration and remittances are limited, especially for flows and informal remittances.
• Informal Channels: Many remittances are sent through informal means, making them difficult to quantify and leading to underestimation of actual flows.
• Regional Variability: The impact of remittances varies by country and over time, influenced by structural characteristics, institutional quality, and economic policies.

Key Information

• Economic Integration: North Africa is more integrated through remittances than through trade or investment.
• Policy Relevance: Given the significant role of remittances in the region's economy, understanding their impact is crucial for policymakers aiming to harness their benefits while mitigating potential negative effects.
• Econometric Model: The paper employs an econometric model to evaluate the growth impact of remittances in North Africa from 1980 to 2007, with a focus on the role of financial development.

Conclusion

The relationship between remittances and economic growth in North Africa remains unclear due to the complexity of the channels through which remittances affect the economy and the limitations in data availability. While some studies suggest a positive impact, others argue that remittances do not significantly contribute to growth. The paper emphasizes the need for better data collection and analysis to fully understand the macroeconomic implications of remittances in the region.