2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sri_Lanka_2013_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Proposal_for_Post_66页_1mb

SRI LANKA: 2013 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION AND POST-PROGRAM MONITORING

Core Content

The 2013 Article IV consultation with Sri Lanka, conducted by the IMF staff, assessed the country's economic developments, policies, and challenges. The report highlights progress in macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction, but also identifies key risks and areas needing reform. It outlines the IMF's recommendations for fiscal, monetary, and structural policies to ensure sustainable growth and debt management.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Context and Progress

• Sri Lanka has made notable progress in economic development, including robust growth, fiscal consolidation, and reduced poverty and inequality.
• Growth has slowed in recent years, with inflation rising and the current account deficit narrowing but still elevated.
• The country aims to increase per capita income to US$4,000 by 2016 with an 8% annual growth rate.
• The Northern province, in particular, experienced stronger growth after the end of the civil conflict.

Fiscal Policy and State Enterprise Reform

• Public debt is among the highest in emerging markets, at around 80% of GDP.
• The 2013 budget targets a 5.8% of GDP deficit, the lowest since 1977.
• Tax revenues have been declining, and the first round of tax reforms did not meet expectations.
• A second generation of tax reforms is needed, focusing on broadening the tax base and improving administration.
• State-owned enterprises (SOEs) like the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) and Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) continue to incur losses, partly due to energy price adjustments and shifts in generation sources.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• Inflation has remained elevated, and monetary policy faces a challenging environment.
• The Central Bank of Sri Lanka eased monetary policy in early 2013, reducing the policy rate corridor.
• A shift toward a flexible inflation targeting framework is recommended to provide a nominal anchor.
• Exchange rate flexibility is important for maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Financial Stability

• Financial soundness indicators are strong, but there are concerns about credit risks and asset quality.
• Stress tests under the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) indicate the need for vigilance.
• Annual stress tests, higher capital buffers, and improved supervision are proposed to strengthen financial stability.

Trade and Growth

• Exports have declined significantly as a share of GDP, and FDI inflows have been lower than expected.
• Structural reforms to improve the business environment, reduce policy barriers, and enhance infrastructure are essential for broadening growth sources.
• A more enabling environment for exports and the private sector is required to enhance external resilience.

Debt Sustainability

• The current account deficit is narrowing, but external risks remain.
• The debt sustainability analysis suggests that external and public debt dynamics are sustainable under the baseline scenario, but sensitive to current account developments and shocks to contingent liabilities.

Key Risks

• Tax revenue weakness is a significant risk to macroeconomic stability.
• Weaker-than-anticipated global growth in key markets (Europe, U.S.) could impact exports and FDI.
• Inflation pressures may persist if expectations remain high.
• Global oil shocks could increase SOE losses and inflation.
• Rapid credit growth could lead to asset quality deterioration in banks.

Policy Recommendations

• Broaden the tax base and improve tax administration.
• Implement a comprehensive VAT reform, including expanding coverage and improving efficiency.
• Maintain a contractionary fiscal stance to reduce the deficit and public debt.
• Strengthen the monetary policy framework with a focus on inflation targeting.
• Enhance financial sector supervision and resilience through stress tests and capital buffers.
• Deepen trade integration and improve the business environment to attract FDI and boost growth.
• Continue structural reforms to improve productivity and infrastructure, particularly in the Northern and Eastern provinces.

Summary of Key Figures and Tables

• GDP growth in 2013 is expected to be around 6.25%, with an excess supply gap emerging.
• Potential growth is estimated at 6.75% in the near term, driven by TFP and capital deepening.
• Tax revenue-to-GDP ratio has declined to 11% in 2012, below regional peers.
• Public debt-to-GDP ratio is around 80%, with debt-to-tax revenue ratio over 600%.
• Current account deficit fell to 6.5% of GDP in 2012, supported by tourism and remittances.
• Inflation eased to 7.5% in March 2013, but core inflation trends upward.
• Capital adequacy ratio in the banking sector declined to 15% in 2012, but remains above the regulatory minimum.
• Gross nonperforming loans (NPLs) eased slightly to 3.5% of total loans.
• Fiscal consolidation in 2012 was driven by spending cuts, particularly in primary current spending and military expenditure.
• PFM reforms are recommended to improve accountability and effectiveness in public finances.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for continued fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and improved tax administration to ensure macroeconomic stability and support long-term growth. While Sri Lanka has made progress, challenges remain, particularly in managing inflation, enhancing trade and investment, and maintaining financial sector resilience. The IMF encourages a more inclusive and sustainable growth path through policy improvements and institutional reforms.