2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Austria_2013_Article_IV_Consultation_48页_1mb

2013 Article IV Consultation Summary: Austria

Core Content

The 2013 Article IV consultation with Austria, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), evaluated the country's economic developments, outlook, and policy priorities. The report outlines key challenges in the financial sector, fiscal sustainability, and the need for structural reforms. It also highlights the risks posed by the re-intensification of the euro area crisis and the importance of financial stability and crisis prevention mechanisms.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Context and Performance

• Economic Strength: Austria remains a relatively strong economy in Europe, with growth and employment holding up better than many other regions.
• Growth Outlook: Growth has slowed since early 2012, with a projected gradual recovery in 2013 and 2014. Staff forecasts indicate growth rates of 0.4% in 2013 and 1.6% in 2014.
• Unemployment: Unemployment is the lowest in the EU, but it is expected to rise slightly to nearly 5% in 2013/2014.
• Inflation: Inflation remains above 2%, driven by higher services inflation, despite slight wage growth.

Current Account and Exchange Rate

• Current Account Surplus: The current account remains in a modest surplus, mainly due to a surplus in services and a decline in the investment rate.
• Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): The REER has appreciated slightly in 2012, reflecting the positive inflation differential with major trading partners.

Risks

• Euro Area Crisis: The most acute risks stem from a re-intensification of the euro area crisis, which could lead to adverse demand shocks and prolonged weak growth.
• CESEE Exposure: Austria's banks have significant exposure to Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE), which could affect their profitability and stability.
• Fiscal Risks: A protracted period of slower European growth and higher-than-anticipated support to intervened banks could shake market confidence and increase public debt.

Policy Discussions

Financial Stability

• Bank Capitalization: The three largest Austrian banks have improved their capital positions, with Core Tier 1 ratios above 10% at end-2012.
• Sovereign-Bank Linkages: Negative feedback loops between the sovereign and the banking sector remain a risk, with potential adverse spillovers to CESEE.
• FSAP Recommendations: The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) recommended strengthening early intervention and resolution powers, improving the deposit insurance system, and creating a bank resolution fund.

Intervened Banks

• Hypo Alpe Adria (HAA): Fully nationalized in 2009, it had assets of EUR 41.1 billion. Its assets have since decreased to EUR 33.8 billion at end-2012.
• Kommunalkredit ("new"): The "good bank" part of Kommunalkredit, with assets of EUR 15.9 billion, has ceased new business activities.
• KA Finanz: The "bad bank" part of Kommunalkredit, with assets of EUR 10.9 billion and off-balance sheet exposure of EUR 6.2 billion, is in a wind-down mode.
• Austrian Volksbanken AG (OeVAG): Nationalized in 2012, its restructuring plan aims to reduce its balance sheet to EUR 19 billion by 2017.

Bank Restructuring and Fiscal Implications

• Restructuring Strategies: The restructuring of intervened banks should focus on minimizing final fiscal costs, even if it temporarily affects fiscal headline figures.
• Fiscal Adjustment: The medium-term fiscal adjustment plan needs to be fully implemented and strengthened to account for further restructuring costs.
• Savings Potential: There is considerable potential for savings in major spending areas such as pensions and health care, which could be used to reduce labor taxation and boost labor supply.

Financial Oversight and Reform

• Supervision: The Financial Market Authority (FMA) and Austrian National Bank (OeNB) collaborate effectively in banking supervision, but could enhance their use of supervisory tools and powers.
• Deposit Insurance: The FSAP recommended unifying the five existing private deposit insurance schemes into a publicly-administered, pre-funded scheme.
• Resolution Fund: The creation of a bank resolution fund, financed by the financial stability tax, could help reduce the need for budgetary support to troubled banks.

Authorities' View

• Alignment with IMF: The Austrian authorities and the IMF are broadly aligned on the economic outlook and risks.
• Progress on Stability: They highlighted progress in enhancing financial stability, including measures to reduce CESEE-related spillovers.
• Policy Delays: They emphasized that reforms related to bank resolution frameworks and deposit guarantee schemes would depend on EU-level decisions.
• Consultants: External consultants have been hired to explore alternative design options for intervened bank restructuring.

Conclusion

The 2013 Article IV consultation underscores Austria's economic resilience in the face of European challenges, but highlights the need for continued fiscal adjustment, improved financial stability frameworks, and more effective bank restructuring. The report serves as a guide for policy improvements to ensure sustainable growth and financial resilience in the future.