牛津经济研究院-2021年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（英）_52页_2mb

European Tourism: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2021)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the state of the European tourism sector in Q2/2021, highlighting the recovery trends, challenges, and future prospects. It outlines the impact of the pandemic, the role of vaccination rates, and the influence of travel restrictions on demand. The report also includes forecasts for both inbound and outbound tourism and discusses the potential for recovery in different regions.

Main Points

• Vaccination and Travel Confidence: The rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine in Europe is improving consumer and travel confidence. By June 2021, around 62% of the EU's adult population had received at least one dose, and 54% of Europeans plan to travel once vaccinated.

• Pent-up Demand: European destinations are seeing a rise in travel demand due to the easing of restrictions and the return of vaccinated travelers, especially from the US. Croatia, for example, reported a 23% increase in visitor arrivals by May 2021.

• Travel Restrictions and Delta Variant: The emergence of the Delta variant poses a risk to the recovery, as it may lead to renewed travel restrictions. Some countries, such as the UK, have already imposed unilateral restrictions due to rising infections.

• Domestic Travel as a Lifeline: Domestic and intra-European travel has been a key support for the sector, with TE forecasting that intra-European travel will account for 83% of Europe's inbound arrivals in 2021, up from 77% in 2019.

• EU Digital Green Pass: The introduction of the EU's Digital Green Pass is expected to play a significant role in the recovery, enabling vaccinated travelers to move freely across the EU and release pent-up demand.

• Uneven Recovery Across Europe: Recovery is uneven, with some countries like the UK and Germany leading in vaccination rates, while others such as Russia lag significantly. This disparity could lead to varied recovery timelines.

• Air Transport Recovery: Air transport demand in Europe has shown some improvement, with RPK volumes in April 2021 being 82% below 2019 levels. The most significant improvement was seen in Turkey, driven mainly by domestic travel.

• Economic Outlook: Tourism Economics forecasts that Europe will achieve the strongest growth among world regions by 2024, with international arrivals expected to rebound to 58.9% of 2019 levels in 2021.

Key Industry Performance

Air Transport

• Global RPKs showed slight improvements in March and April 2021 compared to the start of the year.
• International RPKs were still 87% lower than April 2019, while domestic RPKs were 26% lower.
• China and the US led the recovery in domestic air travel, with China showing signs of full recovery by April 2021.
• In Europe, international air traffic remained weak, with only a few destinations showing improvement.

Accommodation

• The hospitality sector is recovering, with over 95% of European countries reporting increased bookings in the last month.
• The EU's Digital Green Pass is expected to boost demand and facilitate travel across the region.

Special Feature: Long-Haul Travel Recovery

• Long-haul travel markets, particularly those heavily impacted by the pandemic, are expected to recover gradually.
• The US is a key market for Europe, with its vaccination program and travel policies helping to boost arrivals to destinations such as Croatia, Iceland, and Greece.

Key Source Market Performance

• The US has shown strong recovery in travel to Europe, with some destinations surpassing 2019 levels.
• China's domestic tourism is recovering rapidly, but international travel remains stagnant.
• Other markets, such as the Middle East and Africa, are also showing signs of improvement.

Origin Market Share Analysis

• The US continues to be a major source market for European tourism, with a growing share of travel bookings.
• The UK's strong vaccination rate has supported its position as a key market for European destinations.
• Emerging European countries, such as Russia, lag behind in vaccination, affecting their recovery prospects.

Economic Outlook

• The tourism sector is expected to recover significantly by 2024, with the strongest growth in Europe.
• The recovery is being driven by improved vaccination rates, the implementation of digital health passes, and the gradual easing of travel restrictions.
• There is a strong correlation between the easing of restrictions and an increase in air bookings, indicating a positive trend.

Conclusion

The European tourism sector is on the path to recovery, supported by vaccine rollouts, digital health passes, and a shift towards domestic and intra-European travel. While challenges such as the Delta variant remain, the overall outlook is optimistic, with the potential for a strong summer season and continued growth in the coming years.