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报告摘要

Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN Summary

Core Content

The ASEAN Renewable Energy Outlook outlines the region's path toward a sustainable, secure, and prosperous energy future. With rapid economic growth and a 50% increase in energy demand expected by 2025, ASEAN faces significant challenges in ensuring affordable, sustainable, and secure energy supply. To address this, the region has set an aspirational target of achieving 23% renewable energy share in total primary energy supply (TPES) by 2025, which is more than double the current share of 9.4% in 2014.

This target is supported by IRENA in collaboration with the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) and member states. The report explores the potential for deploying renewable energy technologies across all sectors—power, transport, buildings, and industry—and identifies the necessary costs, benefits, and investment needs to reach this goal.

Main Views

Renewables as a key solution: Renewable energy is positioned as a critical component for reducing dependence on fossil fuels, lowering emissions, and improving air quality.
Ambitious but achievable: The 23% target is ambitious but grounded in the region's abundant renewable resources and decreasing costs of renewable technologies.
Multi-sector approach: The REmap programme highlights the need for a multi-sector approach, with renewable energy deployment not limited to electricity generation but also extending to heating, cooking, and transport.
Economic and environmental benefits: The study demonstrates that renewable energy deployment can lead to significant cost savings and environmental benefits, including reduced air pollution and CO₂ emissions.

Key Information

Renewable Energy Targets and Progress

23% of TPES from renewables by 2025 (aspirational target).
Current share in 2014: 9.4%.
Expected share under Reference Case: 17%.
Gap to close: 6 percentage points.

Renewable Energy Sectors and Contributions

Power sector: 27% in the Reference Case, 34% in REmap.
Buildings: 13% in the Reference Case, 26% in REmap.
Industry: 15–18% in the Reference Case, up to 23% in REmap.
Transport: 3% in 2014, expected to reach 9% in REmap.

Renewable Technology Mix

Power generation: Solar PV (15%), wind, geothermal, and bioenergy (15%).
End-use sectors: Solar thermal (25%), bioenergy (35%), and other renewables (10%).

Investment and Cost Analysis

Total investment needed: USD 290 billion over the next decade.
Annual investment required: USD 27 billion, with USD 5 billion redirected from fossil fuel investments.
Additional investment needed: USD 14 billion annually beyond existing plans.
Cost per MWh: USD 1.9 for final renewable energy in 2025.
Savings from reduced externalities: At least 10 times higher than costs, up to 50 times if indoor air pollution is included.

Environmental Impact

CO₂ emissions in Reference Case: 61% increase by 2025.
CO₂ emissions under REmap: 47% increase.
Air pollution costs: Expected to rise from USD 167 billion in 2014 to USD 225 billion in 2025.
Energy intensity reduction: 30% decrease by 2025 in REmap.

Action Areas for Renewable Deployment

Increase Power System Flexibility: Enhance grid integration and reliability for variable renewables.
Expand Renewable Energy Uptake: Focus on power, heating, cooking, and transport sectors.
Create a Sustainable Bioenergy Market: Promote regional trade and affordability.
Improve Data and Best Practices Sharing: Address information gaps and promote knowledge exchange.

Renewable Growth Potential

Hydropower, geothermal, and biofuels will see growth in the Reference Case.
Solar PV and bioenergy will drive the most significant increases in REmap.
Transport electrification is a major opportunity, with 59 million electric two- and three-wheelers and 5.9 million four-wheel vehicles expected by 2025.

Challenges and Opportunities

Energy security: Increased reliance on imported fossil fuels.
Air pollution and CO₂ emissions: Major concerns with current fossil fuel use.
Renewable deployment: Requires coordinated national and regional action, policy support, and investment.

Support and Collaboration

IRENA and ACE have collaborated to develop this roadmap.
REmap programme is central to identifying the most effective technologies and strategies.
Country-specific contributions are necessary to meet the 23% target.

Conclusion

The ASEAN Renewable Energy Outlook presents a clear roadmap for transitioning to a more sustainable energy system. While the target is ambitious, it is achievable with the right mix of technologies, investment, and policy. The report underscores the importance of cross-sector collaboration, flexible power systems, and data transparency in accelerating the region's renewable energy transition.

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