20250318-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_7页_841kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content

This document is a Fixed Income Daily Market Update from the CMBI Credit Commentary, providing insights into the current market conditions, key corporate updates, and macroeconomic outlook for China and other regions. It includes trading desk comments, desk analyst views, and news recap, with a focus on bond price movements, company performance, and economic indicators.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Bond Market Movements

• DBSSP Float 28-30s: Unchanged to 2bps wider.

• BABA 27-35s: Better bid, closed 1-2bps tighter.

• CKINF/CKPH Perps: Rebounded, closed unchanged to 1.1pts higher.

• LASUDE 26s: Rose another 0.3pt.

• WB 3.375 07/08/30: 2bps wider after FY24 results, unchanged this morning.

• Top Performers (from last trading day):

  • SINOPC 4 1/4 04/24/43: +1.0pt
  • JAPTOB 3.3 09/14/51: +0.8pt
  • CHJMAO 4 1/4 07/23/29: +0.6pt
  • CNPCCH 5.95 04/28/41: +0.6pt
  • TENCNT 4.525 04/11/49: +0.6pt

• Top Underperformers:

  • CKINF 4.2 PERP: -3.3pt
  • CKPH 3 1/2 PERP: -2.8pt
  • CKINF 4.85 PERP: -2.7pt
  • CKINF 4 PERP: -2.3pt
  • CKPH 3.8 PERP: -2.0pt

2. Company Analysis: Weibo (WB)

• FY24 Revenue: Flat compared to FY23.
• Revenue Breakdown:
  • Advertising and Marketing Revenues: Lower yoy.
  • Internet of Services, 3C Products, Automobile: Largest contributors to growth.
  • Cosmetics and Personal Care: Declined, reflecting weak consumption sentiment.
  • Value-added Services Revenues: Rose 13.4% yoy, driven by membership and game-related revenues.
• Net Profit: Dropped 13% yoy to USD310mn, due to investment impairment and lower interest income.
• Liquidity:
  • Cash and Short-term Investment: USD2.4bn (down 27% from Dec'23).
  • Net Cash Position: USD490mn (down 13% from Dec'23).
• Capital Expenditure: Increased to USD62mn in FY24, mainly for AI and content ecosystem.
• Dividend: USD200mn approved for FY24, to be paid in May'25.
• Bond Recommendation:
  • Buy WB 3.375 07/08/30 (USD750mn, 92.0 price, YTM 5.1%, Z-spread 129bps).
  • Buy TENCNT 3.595 01/19/28 and TENCNT 3.975 04/11/29 for shorter tenor and lower cash prices.
• Other TMT Bonds:
  • MEITUA 0 04/27/27, MEITUA 2.125 10/28/25, XIAOMI 3.375 04/29/30, XIAOMI 2.875 07/14/31 are recommended due to their exposure to domestic consumption and reduced sensitivity to US sanctions.

3. China Economic Outlook

• GDP Growth: Expected to decelerate from 5.1% in 9M25 to 4.5% in 4Q25, with a full-year growth of 4.9%.
• Policy Support: The PBOC is expected to cut RRR by 50bps in 2Q25 and LPRs by 20bps in 2H25, maintaining an accommodative stance.
• Housing Market:
  • Supply and Demand Rebalance: Demand improves, but supply continues to slump.
  • GFA Sold: YoY decline narrowed to 5.1% in 2M25 from 12.9% in 12M24.
  • GFA Started: Further dropped to 29.6% in 2M25 from 23% in 12M24.
  • Second-hand Sales: Stronger recovery than new housing sales, especially in higher-tier cities.
  • Property Development Investments: Still in deep contraction at -9.8% in 2M25.
• Retail Sales:
  • Grew to 4% in 2M25, slightly above market consensus of 3.8%.
  • Trade-in Subsidy: Boosted durable goods sales, including home appliances and furniture.
  • Auto Sales: Dropped 4.4% in 2M25 due to price wars.
• Fixed Asset Investment (FAI):
  • Grew to 4.1% in 2M25, above market expectations of 3.2%.
  • Infrastructure FAI: Notably increased by 10% in 2M25.
  • Manufacturing FAI: Grew to 9% in 2M25 from 8.4% in Dec.
• Industrial Output:
  • Moderately declined to 5.9% in 2M25 from 6.2% in Dec.
  • Some sectors like other transport equipment, electrical equipment, and metal products remained robust.

4. New Issues and Pipeline

• Onshore Credit Bonds:

  • 90 credit bonds issued yesterday, raising RMB73bn.
  • Month-to-date: 1,016 credit bonds issued, totaling RMB805bn, a 29.8% yoy decrease.

• Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced):

  • Bank Mandiri: USD800mn, 3yr, 4.9% coupon, T+113 pricing, Baa2/BBB/- rating.
  • Binjiang Guotou: USD81mn, 3yr, 6.5% coupon, 6.5% pricing, unrated.
  • Jiyuan City Jikang Technology Co: USD100mn, 3yr, 6.8% coupon, 6.8% pricing, unrated.
  • Lanxi Transportation Construction Investment Group: USD100mn, 3yr, 5.7% coupon, 5.7% pricing, unrated.

• Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline):

  • Asian Development Bank: USD10yr, SOFR MS+60 pricing, Aaa/AAA/AAA rating.
  • Bangkok Bank: USD15NC10, T+215 pricing, Baa3/-/- rating.
  • Henan Airport Investment Group: USD3yr, 5.7% coupon, Baa1/-/- rating.
  • PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero): USD5yr, 6.55% coupon, Ba3/-/- rating.
  • Qingdao Military-Civilian Integration Development Group: USD3yr, 6.4% coupon, unrated.

5. News and Market Color

• Fitch: Withdrew ABM Investama's B+ rating for commercial reasons.
• Moody's: Upgraded Cikarang Listrindo to Baa3 from Ba1.
• GLP China: Filed application for a RMB3bn bond offering.
• Guotai Junan Securities: S&P affirmed BBB+ rating with stable outlook.
• China Hongqiao: To issue USD300mn HONGQI 1.5 03/26/30 (CB) and repurchase 20.5mn shares.
• S&P Upgrades: Sammaan Capital (B+), Muthoot Finance (BB+), Shriram Finance (BB+).
• Indika Energy: Moody's changed outlook to negative due to expected credit deterioration.
• San Miguel Corp: FY24 EBITDA climbed 10% to PHP225.9bn (cUSD3.9bn).
• SM Investments Corp: Updated USD3bn EMTN programme to allow offshore bond market tapping.

6. Important Disclosures

• Risk Disclaimer: There are risks in trading any securities. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• Use of Report: The report is for CMBI clients only and should not be used for other purposes without prior consent.
• Conflict of Interest: CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with the companies discussed.
• Distribution Restrictions:
  • UK: Only for persons under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order.
  • US: Only for major US institutional investors; not for general distribution.
  • Singapore: Distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser, and subject to legal responsibility only for Accredited, Expert, or Institutional Investors.

7. Author Certification

• The author certifies that:
  • All views expressed accurately reflect personal opinions.
  • No part of compensation is related to the views in the report.
  • No trading or dealing in covered stocks within 30 days before or 3 days after report issuance.
  • No financial interest in the companies discussed.

8. Contact Information

• Glenn Ko, CFA: (852) 3657 6235 / glennko@cmbi.com.hk
• Cyrena Ng, CPA: (852) 3900 0801 / cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk
• Jerry Wang: (852) 3761 8919 / jerrywang@cmbi.com.hk
• Fixed Income Department: fis@cmbi.com.hk

9. CMBI Disclaimer

• This report is not an offer or solicitation to buy/sell securities.
• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the US and not subject to US regulations.
• Recipients should consult professional financial advisors for investment decisions.