2014年-世界发展银行全球_Pakistan_Poverty_Trends_Scenarios_and_Drivers_36页_1mb

Pakistan Poverty Trends, Scenarios and Drivers Summary

Core Content

This policy paper analyzes recent poverty trends in Pakistan, focusing on the progress made since 2002 and the factors contributing to poverty reduction. It also explores future poverty scenarios based on projected GDP growth and discusses the role of labor market dynamics and non-labor transfers in this process.

Main Views

• Poverty Reduction Progress: Pakistan has made significant strides in reducing poverty over the past two decades, with the headcount poverty rate falling from about 60% in 1991 to approximately 20% in 2008. From 2002 to 2011, the national poverty rate dropped from 35% to 13.6%, with the most notable decline in rural areas.

• Shared Prosperity: Growth has led to shared prosperity, as the bottom 40% of the population experienced faster consumption growth than the top 60% since 2006. This trend has helped reduce poverty and inequality.

• Vulnerability Concerns: Despite poverty reduction, a large portion of the population remains near or just above the poverty line, making them vulnerable to economic shocks. Vulnerability rates have increased from 53.5% in 1999 to 60.1% in 2011.

• Key Drivers: Increased productivity in the non-agricultural sector has been a major driver of poverty reduction. The Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) and remittances have also contributed, though to a lesser extent.

• Labor Market Challenges: Female labor force participation remains low, and the economy has not created enough salaried and non-agricultural jobs. There has been a decline in the share of workers in salaried jobs, while agricultural employment has slightly increased, which is unusual for a country undergoing structural transformation.

• Regional and Provincial Disparities: Poverty reduction has been uneven across provinces. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) has seen the fastest decline in poverty, while Punjab and Sindh have had mixed trends. Vulnerability rates are especially high in Balochistan.

• Service Access Inequality: Poor households in Sindh and KPK have significantly less access to basic services such as electricity, water, and sanitation compared to non-poor households, despite overall improvements.

• Future Scenarios: Simulations suggest that higher GDP growth (7% vs. 4.2%) would lead to faster poverty reduction, with projections indicating a headcount poverty rate of 6.6% by 2018 under a high-growth scenario. However, growth alone may not significantly improve other Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Key Information

Poverty Trends

• Headcount Poverty Rate: Fell from 60% in 1991 to 20% in 2008, and further to 13.6% in 2011.
• Urban vs. Rural: Rural poverty declined more sharply than urban poverty, from 40% to 16% between 2002 and 2011.
• Vulnerability: Nearly 60% of the population is vulnerable, defined as households with per capita consumption between one and two poverty lines.
• Consumption Growth: Average annual consumption growth for the bottom 40% was 1.4% between 2006 and 2008, and 0.4% thereafter.

Future Projections

• Base Scenario (4.2% GDP Growth): Poverty is projected to fall to 9.3% by 2018.
• High Growth Scenario (7.0% GDP Growth): Poverty could drop to 6.6% by 2018.
• Vulnerability Reduction: Vulnerability is expected to decrease from 60.6% in 2012 to 56.7% in 2018 under the high-growth scenario.

Drivers of Poverty Reduction

• Non-Agricultural Productivity: Increased productivity in non-agricultural sectors contributed significantly to poverty reduction, accounting for about one-third of the decline.
• Cash Transfers: BISP has been effective in targeting the poor, though coverage remains limited.
• Remittances: Mainly benefit non-poor households, thus having a smaller impact on poverty reduction.
• Employment Trends: Salaried employment has declined, and agricultural employment has increased, which is atypical for a country undergoing structural change.

Challenges

• Job Creation: The economy has not created enough salaried and non-agricultural jobs, limiting the ability of the labor market to absorb new workers.
• Female Labor Participation: Remains unusually low compared to regional and global standards.
• Service Access: Disparities in access to electricity, water, and sanitation persist, especially in Sindh and KPK.
• Data Limitations: The official poverty line has not been updated since 2001 and may not reflect current consumption patterns.

Conclusion

While Pakistan has made impressive progress in poverty reduction, challenges remain, particularly in job creation, service access, and female labor participation. Continued economic growth, especially with improved infrastructure and human capital investment, could further reduce poverty and vulnerability. However, the impact of growth on other development goals like education and sanitation is expected to be modest. Addressing these structural issues is crucial for achieving long-term poverty alleviation and shared prosperity.