2021-09-17-Credit_Suisse-全球科技供应链的一种对冲_92页_4mb

ASEAN Technology Sector Summary

Core Content

The report provides an analysis of the ASEAN technology (semiconductor) sector, highlighting its growing importance as a hedge for the global tech supply chain. It emphasizes the region's strategic position, existing infrastructure, and potential for value chain development.

Key Highlights

• Economic Impact: The technology (semiconductor) sector contributes significantly to ASEAN's exports, with E&E exports totaling US$406.7 billion in 2020, representing 29% of total ASEAN exports.
• Supply Chain Role: ASEAN is primarily involved in low-wage assembly work and downstream manufacturing, with 44% of the 46 listed companies being electronic manufacturing services (EMS) firms.
• Geographic Concentration: 59% of the listed companies are located in Malaysia, which has a relatively mature ecosystem and is well understood by investors.
• Growth Drivers: The report outlines three main themes that will drive growth in the ASEAN technology sector:
  • Apple's Supply Chain: Companies like Inari and Nanofilm are positioned to benefit from Apple's supply chain.
  • EV and Automotive Content Growth: Companies such as Pentamaster, Hana Microelectronics, and KCE Electronics are expected to gain from the rise of electric vehicles and automotive content.
  • 5G Development: Frontken is highlighted as a stock leveraged to the growth of 5G technology.
• Investment Recommendations:
  • Outperform: Inari, Nanofilm, Frontken, Pentamaster, Hana Microelectronics, KCE Electronics.
  • Underperform: Delta Electronics Thailand.
• Valuation Metrics: The report includes valuation metrics for several listed companies, including EBITDA margins, PE ratios, and price performance.
• Key Risks:
  1. Multiple de-rating due to earnings disappointments (e.g., Nanofilm in 1H FY21).
  2. Supply chain disruptions.
  3. ESG concerns, particularly modern slavery.

Main Points

• Strategic Position: ASEAN is well positioned to become a key player in the global technology supply chain due to its strategic location, large population, and existing ecosystem.
• Supply Chain Dynamics: The global tech supply chain is experiencing tightness in supply, especially in clean room space, and capacity utilisation is expected to improve as demand remains strong.
• Investor Focus: The report suggests that Malaysia is a hub for technology companies, and Singapore and Thailand are also significant players.
• Valuation Analysis: Companies in the semiconductor and semiconductor services space are being evaluated for their growth potential, valuation metrics, and market performance.
• Stock Coverage: The report expands its coverage list to include seven new companies, each with its own investment thesis and target prices.

Key Information

• Malaysia's Role:
  • 59% of listed companies are based in Malaysia.
  • Malaysia Semiconductor/Semiconductor services show varying EBITDA margins and PE ratios.
  • Malaysia EMS companies include UWC, VS Industry, ATA IMS, and SKP Resources.
• Singapore's Role:
  • Nanofilm is highlighted as a company with an Outperform rating.
  • Singapore EMS companies include Venture, Frenken, and Valuetronics.
• Thailand's Role:
  • KCE Electronics and Hana Microelectronics are highlighted for their Outperform ratings.
  • Delta Electronics Thailand is noted for its Underperform rating.
• Valuation Table:
  • The table includes EBITDA margins, PE ratios, and price performance for companies in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.
  • It also provides fund flows and short selling statistics for Malaysia's semiconductor and EMS companies.
• Growth Outlook:
  • The 2H21 is expected to see robust demand, which will drive growth in the sector.
  • Inventory levels have exited at normal levels, but companies are trying to build further to de-risk supply.
  • Capacity utilisation is expected to improve by 2023.

Summary Table

Key Risks

• Earnings Disappointment: Some companies, like Nanofilm, have experienced de-rating due to earnings disappointment.
• Supply Chain Disruption: The sector is vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.
• ESG Concerns: Modern slavery is a concern for some companies, affecting their valuation and investment appeal.

Conclusion

The ASEAN technology sector is a strategic alternative to the global tech supply chain, with a strong foundation and potential for value chain development. Companies in the sector are being evaluated based on their position in the supply chain, growth potential, and valuation metrics. The report recommends several stocks for investment, particularly those aligned with Apple's supply chain, EV and automotive content growth, and 5G development. However, key risks such as earnings disappointment, supply chain disruptions, and ESG concerns should be considered before making investment decisions.