2021-09-13-Credit_Suisse-2021年亚洲科技大会_供应仍限制需求_112页_1mb

Asia Technology Strategy Summary

Core Content

The 2021 Credit Suisse Asian Technology Conference (ATC) highlighted the ongoing supply constraints in the technology sector, which are supporting positive sentiment and pricing power. Despite some concerns about potential demand slowdowns, the overall outlook remains optimistic due to continued growth in key sectors such as HPC/cloud, EV, IoT, and hybrid office. The conference featured 124 corporates, 8 expert speakers, 816 investors, and over 3,600 meetings from September 6th to 10th, 2021.

Main Points

• Demand and Supply Dynamics: Management teams remain optimistic about 2022 demand, driven by HPC/cloud, EV, IoT (including Wifi 6, AR/VR, wearables), and hybrid office trends. However, supply constraints persist, especially in hardware, assembly, and components, which face bottlenecks and cost pressures.

• IC Tightness and Pricing: Continued IC tightness is lifting pricing for foundry, back-end, and substrates. Most fabless companies are passing on costs to customers, though some are facing margin pressures.

• Sector-Specific Outlook:

  • HPC/Data Center: Strong and optimistic, with expectations for AMD/Intel 2022 refreshes.
  • Smartphones: Android smartphones are mixed, but 5G upgrades are on track. iPhone production is on schedule, while Mac and iPad continue to grow.
  • PC: Expected to remain stable, with a shift from Chromebooks.
  • IoT: Growth in Wifi 6, 10G PON, wearables, and AR/VR is anticipated.
  • Automotive: Strong electronics growth, but still constrained.
  • Memory: Prices are expected to experience a seasonal correction rather than a downturn.
  • Foundry: TSMC's price hikes are confirmed, and foundry capacity remains tight.
  • Back-end: Drivers include wirebonding, SiP, and IDM sourcing.
  • Supply Chain: Inventories are in control, but companies are seeking to build buffer stock due to moderate supply growth.

Key Information

• Company Tone: 73% of companies were positive, 27% neutral, maintaining the top end of the 15-year historical range.
• Top Semiconductor Picks:
  • TSMC (affirmed price increases)
  • Samsung (memory resilience, mobile recovery/foldables)
  • Mediatek (5G flagship launch, non-mobile content gains)
  • GlobalWafers (rising wafer pricing)
  • Novatek (OLED gains, tightness continuing)
  • Will Semi (Non Smartphone Ramps)
  • Giga Device (MCU/NOR strength)
  • Unimicron (ABF tightness)
  • Semco (strong substrates, resilient MLCCs)
  • JEOL (EUV mask writers)
• Top Hardware Picks:
  • Lenovo (improving data center, commercial PC)
  • E-Ink (rising e-shelf labels)
  • Hu Lane (automotive connectors)
  • LG Innotek (iPhone camera module upgrades)
  • ZTE (infrastructure share gains, improving GMs)
  • Xiaomi (share gains in mobile and IoT)
• Performance Highlights:
  • The 10 most requested stocks from the 2020 ATC saw an average return of 69% in the past year, with TSMC, ASML, and UMC leading the way with over 100% gains.
  • The 10 least requested stocks from the 2020 ATC had an average return of 66%, with ChipMOS, Tech Mahindra, Wipro, and Mindtree showing strong performance.
  • From the 2021 ATC, the most requested stocks averaged 46% in the past year, while the least requested averaged 2% in the past month, with some sell-offs in the HK/China market.

Key Takeaways from the Conference

• Positive Outlook: The tech sector remains cautiously optimistic, with strong earnings growth and continued supply tightness.
• Earnings Growth: Tech earnings growth for 2022 is at 55%, with further growth expected in 2023.
• P/E Multiples: Tech P/E multiples are at 18x for 2021 and 15.3x for 2022, which are not far from the regional average of 15.5x/14.0x.
• Risks: Potential demand slowdown in PC/Consumer and inventory correction are key risks, though supply chain buffer stock should help maintain capacity tightness.

Analysts

• Randy Abrams, CFA
• Manish Nigam
• Jerry Su
• Pauline Chen
• Keon Han
• Kyna Wong
• Hideyuki Maekawa
• Chaolien Tseng
• Sang Uk Kim
• Haas Liu
• Harvie Chou
• Danny Chan

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Tech tone stays at the high-end of its historical range at the 2021 ATC.
• Figure 2: Top Asia tech picks coming out of ATC.
• Figure 3: Supply tightness continues for many tech categories.
• Figure 4: Performance of the 2020 ATC picks.
• Figure 5: Performance of the 2020 most requested stocks.
• Figure 6: Performance of the 2020 least requested stocks.
• Figure 7: Tech tone remains positive with 73% of companies.
• Figure 8: Tech earnings growth in 2022.
• Figure 9: Tech P/Es not far off the regional average.
• Figure 10: Tech tone cautiously optimistic.

Conclusion

The 2021 ATC reinforces the positive outlook for the Asian technology sector, driven by strong demand and constrained supply. Despite some risks, the sector is expected to maintain pricing power and supply tightness, supporting continued growth and resilience. The top picks reflect a focus on semiconductors and hardware, with a clear emphasis on companies that can capitalize on the ongoing tech trends and supply constraints.