2015年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_in_Zimbabwe___Changing_Incentives_to_Enhance_Competitiveness_169页_4mb

Trade in Zimbabwe: Changing Incentives to Enhance Competitiveness

Core Content

This report, Trade in Zimbabwe: Changing Incentives to Enhance Competitiveness, by Richard Newfarmer and Martha Denisse Pierola, examines the role of trade in Zimbabwe's economic development and explores policy reforms that could enhance competitiveness and drive sustainable growth. It highlights the country's historical reliance on exports, the challenges it faces in maintaining export performance, and the potential for leveraging trade policies and services trade reforms to improve its economic outlook.

Main Points and Key Findings

• Trade as a Growth Engine: Trade has historically been a key driver of economic growth in Zimbabwe. Since 1980, export growth has correlated with national income growth, but since 2005, export performance has fallen short of its potential, despite the country's strategic location, natural resources, and relatively well-educated workforce.

• Export Performance:

  • From the mid-1990s to 2009, Zimbabwe's total exports declined in nominal terms (Figure O.1).
  • After 2009, mineral exports (diamonds, platinum, gold, etc.) rebounded, but comparator countries outperformed Zimbabwe, even with new export products (Figure O.2).
  • Agricultural and manufacturing exports, which were once significant contributors, have stagnated or declined, and services exports have also grown slowly.

• Export Diversification:

  • Diversification has not occurred as expected. Instead of expanding the range of products and markets, Zimbabwe has reduced both (Figure O.5).
  • The export base is becoming increasingly concentrated in resource-intensive sectors, particularly mining, which has led to a less diversified and less technologically advanced export portfolio (Figure O.7).
  • This trend has resulted in fewer jobs and less value added, with a growing reliance on capital-intensive industries like mining, which offer fewer employment opportunities compared to labor-intensive sectors.

• Competitiveness and Policy Incentives:

  • Trade policies in Zimbabwe are biased against exports, with high tariffs, nontariff barriers, and restrictive regulations.
  • These policies have hindered the growth of export-oriented industries and discouraged both domestic and foreign investment.
  • The report suggests that reforming these policies and creating a more favorable environment for trade would be crucial to enhancing competitiveness.

• Industrial Policy:

  • Industrial policy in Zimbabwe has been restrictive, especially regarding foreign investment. The country has maintained high levels of foreign ownership restrictions, which have limited the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI).
  • The report outlines ten principles for a smart industrial policy, emphasizing the need for a more open and supportive environment for both domestic and foreign firms.
  • There is a call for reforming the indigenization and economic empowerment policies to make them more effective in promoting industrial growth and diversification.

• Services Trade Reform:

  • Services trade is a growing segment of the global economy, but Zimbabwe has underperformed in this area.
  • The country has not effectively leveraged its potential in services exports, such as tourism and business process outsourcing (BPO).
  • Improving services trade connectivity and reducing restrictions could unlock new growth opportunities.

• Connectivity and Trade Facilitation:

  • Poor transport and trade infrastructure, along with high costs and inefficient border management, have hindered trade facilitation in Zimbabwe.
  • The report highlights the need for better transport networks, more efficient border processes, and improved trade finance mechanisms to support trade.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Reform trade policies to reduce anti-export bias and improve competitiveness.
  • Enhance industrial policies to attract FDI and support domestic industries.
  • Improve services trade connectivity and access to international markets.
  • Invest in trade facilitation and infrastructure to lower costs and increase efficiency.

Structure of the Report

• Introduction: Sets the context of trade's historical and current role in Zimbabwe's economy.
• Trade Performance: A Retrospective: Reviews the evolution of Zimbabwe's trade performance and identifies key challenges.
• Policies Affecting Trade: Incentives and Connectivity: Examines the structure of tariffs, nontariff measures, and trade facilitation challenges.
• The Forward-Looking Agenda: Proposes future directions for trade and industrial policy reform.
• Annexes and Appendices: Include detailed data on trade performance, tariff structures, and policy options.

Key Figures and Data

• Figure O.1: Zimbabwe's total exports from 1990 to 2012 show a decline in nominal terms from the mid-1990s to 2009.
• Figure O.2: Zimbabwe's exports are outperformed by comparator countries, even with new export products.
• Figure O.3: Post-dollarization, export volumes in agriculture and manufacturing remain below their 2000–01 peaks.
• Figure O.4: Export growth has shifted from a diversified pattern in the 1990s to a resource-based focus.
• Figure O.5: Zimbabwe has reduced the number of products and markets it exports to, unlike other African countries.
• Figure O.6: Services exports in Zimbabwe have not grown significantly, with tourism and BPO lagging behind other countries.
• Figure O.7: Resource-intensive exports dominate, with a decline in the technological and labor-intensive sectors.

Conclusion

Zimbabwe has the potential to enhance its economic growth through trade, but it must address structural issues in its trade and industrial policies. The report calls for a shift from an anti-export bias to a more export-friendly environment, improved services trade connectivity, and a more diversified and technologically advanced export base. These reforms are essential to ensuring sustainable growth and greater economic resilience.