2014年-世界发展银行全球_Third_Ethiopia_Economic_Update___Strengthening_Export_Performance_through_Improved_Competitiveness_98页_3mb

Ethiopia Economic Update: Strengthening Export Performance Through Improved Competitiveness

Core Content

This report, published by the World Bank Group in June 2014, evaluates Ethiopia's recent economic developments and export performance. It emphasizes the importance of improving export competitiveness to support long-term economic growth and structural transformation. The report outlines the challenges and opportunities in Ethiopia's export sector, focusing on the need for value addition, diversification, and policy reforms.

Main Points

Economic Growth and Structure

• Ethiopia has experienced strong economic growth over the past decade, driven primarily by the services and agriculture sectors.
• In 2012/13, GDP growth was 9.7%, with agriculture contributing 3.1 percentage points and services 4.5 percentage points.
• Industry growth was 18.5%, but its contribution to GDP growth was modest at 2.1 percentage points.
• Manufacturing, as part of the industry sector, contributed only 0.4 percentage points to overall GDP growth.

Export Performance

• Ethiopia's export sector has faced its worst performance in over a decade, with a 2.5% decline in goods exports in 2012/13 and an additional 7.6% drop in the first half of 2013/14.
• The decline was largely due to falling international prices, especially for key exports like coffee and gold, which make up nearly half of total goods exports.
• Services exports also declined, growing only 1.5% in 2012/13, compared to an average of 18% over the previous nine years.

Structural Transformation

• Ethiopia's economy has seen a shift from agriculture to services, but the transition in employment composition has been slower.
• Labor productivity has increased across most sectors, though this is mainly due to productivity improvements within sectors, not labor reallocation.

Export Competitiveness

• Ethiopia's export sector is vulnerable to price volatility due to the dominance of unprocessed agricultural products.
• A more competitive real exchange rate could significantly boost export growth, with estimates suggesting a 10% decrease in the real exchange rate could increase export growth by over 5 percentage points annually and economic growth by over 2 percentage points.
• The real exchange rate has appreciated by more than 50% over the past 3.5 years, making Ethiopia's exports less competitive.

Key Challenges

• The export sector lacks dynamism, with few "export superstars" emerging and limited firm entry and exit.
• Smaller firms face barriers to credit and foreign exchange, which hinders their ability to scale up.
• Ethiopia's export basket is dominated by basic commodities, which compete more on price than quality.
• The country has a low ratio of merchandise exports to GDP and fewer exporting firms compared to Kenya, despite a larger population.
• Trade restrictions and an anti-export bias in tariff regimes are evident, with high nominal and effective rates of protection.

Policy Recommendations

1. Increase value addition, quality, and branding of exports to reduce reliance on price competitiveness.
2. Ease constraints related to reliable power supply, credit, and foreign exchange to support export growth.
3. Redress bottlenecks in trade logistics to reduce trade costs and improve efficiency.
4. Establish industrial zones that adhere to international best practices.
5. Revise burdensome business rules, especially those that increase start-up capital requirements and preregistration bank deposits.
6. Improve regulatory quality by implementing a pro-competition legal framework.
7. Ensure a competitive real exchange rate to support export promotion.

Export Sector Analysis

• The export sector is too small to drive structural transformation, unlike in East Asia where export growth supported a shift from agriculture to manufacturing.
• Ethiopia's export performance is heavily influenced by external conditions, particularly global commodity prices and exchange rates.
• The country is leveraging trade preferences to diversify its export base, but this window of opportunity is narrow.

External Sector Trends

• Ethiopia has a chronic external current account deficit, driven by a large trade and services deficit.
• In 2012/13, the trade deficit was 5.9% of GDP, and the services deficit was 16.7% of GDP.
• The deficit was financed by external borrowing (4.2% of GDP) and FDI (2.6% of GDP), but the reliance on transfers (private and public) is a potential vulnerability.
• Foreign exchange reserves were low at about 1.9 months of imports in December 2013.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation remained in single digits due to tighter monetary policy and lower global commodity prices.
• Reserve money growth dropped from 40% in July 2011 to -3.7% in December 2013, indicating monetary discipline.
• Broad money growth also declined from 37% to 22% over the same period, suggesting a shift in monetary policy stance.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal policy remained expansionary in 2012/13, with the primary deficit reaching 5.2% of GDP.
• Public sector investment through SOEs and federal/region governments was a key driver of the deficit.
• The general government fiscal deficit increased from 1.2% to 2.0% of GDP in 2012/13.
• Revenue growth was significant, with total revenues rising from 13.9% to 14.6% of GDP.
• However, expenditures increased faster, leading to a larger deficit, with capital spending concentrated in agriculture, roads, health, and housing.

Conclusion

• Ethiopia's export performance is hampered by structural weaknesses and a lack of competitiveness.
• The report highlights the need for policy reforms to improve the business environment, reduce trade costs, and promote export diversification and value addition.
• A competitive real exchange rate and improved regulatory quality are critical for enhancing export performance and supporting structural transformation.