高盛-中国经济新三大动能：电池、电车、可再生能源（英）-2023.10.19-12页_303kb

Summary of GMBA GS Report: Sizing the "New Three" in the Chinese Economy

The report analyzes the contribution of the "New Three" sectors—battery production, new energy vehicle (NEV) production, and renewable energy capital expenditure—to China's GDP and urban employment. These sectors are significant due to decarbonization efforts and are compared to the traditional "Old Three" sectors or property downcycle.

Key findings include:

• The "New Three" can partially offset GDP growth drag from the shrinking property sector and declining traditional vehicle production, but it is not sufficient to fully counteract the negative impact. In a low growth scenario, real GDP growth slows by -0.5pp annually from 2023-2027, with the highest drag at -0.8pp in 2023, fading to -0.2pp by 2027. In a high growth scenario, the net impact averages -0.3pp over the period.
• NEV production demonstrates strong growth potential, with NEV production set to account for 60% of total passenger car production by 2027. However, the drag from property investment cannot be fully offset, and GDP growth is projected to decline from 4.5% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2027.
• Value-added analysis shows that each yuan of final demand in NEV production generates approximately 0.84 yuan of domestic GDP and indirectly creates 2.8 million jobs. However, this is slightly lower than residential housing construction (0.88 yuan per yuan). Overall, induced value-added and employment benefits are modest compared to property-related sectors.
• Urban employment is expected to decrease in the low growth scenario due to job losses in property and traditional vehicle sectors, exacerbated by frictional unemployment from sector transitions.
• Constraints and limitations include the assumption of unchanged input-output structures based on 2020 data, and potential growth gains from unmodeled sectors like charging infrastructure or downstream NEV industries.

The analysis underscores that while "New Three" growth is robust, it is unlikely to decelerate China's economic growth sufficiently on its own, leading to expected GDP deceleration despite supportive policies.