2023-11-01-高盛-中国经济新三大动能_电池_电车_可再生能源（英）_12页_212kb

Summary of Report: Sizing the "New Three" in the Chinese Economy

Introduction

The "New Three" refers to battery, new energy vehicle (NEV), and renewable energy sectors, compared to the "Old Three" in industries like furniture, home appliances, and clothing. These "New Three" sectors are crucial for China's "high-quality growth" and have experienced significant growth due to decarbonization efforts. The report analyzes their contribution to GDP and the economy's overall performance.

Key Findings

• Growth and Economic Contribution:

  • NEV, battery, and renewable energy production have grown rapidly, with NEV production increasing from 1 million to 6.7 million units by 2022.
  • Each trillion RMB of NEV final demand generates approximately 0.84 trillion RMB domestic value-added and 2.8 million in urban employment.
  • Renewable energy investment primarily drives GDP through upstream sectors, while NEV production has a broader supply chain impact.

• Comparison to Residential Housing:

  • NEV production contributes slightly less to domestic value-added (0.84 per yuan) than residential housing investment (0.88 per yuan), but creates fewer jobs (2.8m per trillion RMB vs. 3.7m for housing).
  • Job gains are lower due to less labor-intensive manufacturing compared to construction.

• Net Impact on GDP and Employment:

  • The "New Three" only partially offsets the negative impact of the property sector's downturn and declining traditional vehicle production.
  • Estimated drag on real GDP growth ranges from -0.3pp to -0.5pp annually (2023–2027) in low and high growth scenarios, leading to GDP slowing from 4.5% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2027.
  • Urban employment could decline due to job losses in property and traditional vehicle sectors, exacerbated by frictional unemployment from skill mismatches.

• Future Projections:

  • NEV production is expected to grow rapidly, accounting for 60% of total passenger car output by 2027, but overall passenger car demand may slow.
  • Challenges include potential export market restrictions and high consumer confidence dependency.

Caveats and Limitations

• Analysis based on 2020 input-output data; future technological changes could alter sector interdependencies.
• Not all linkages (e.g., downstream charging infrastructure) are fully captured, potentially underestimating GDP impact.
• Assumes unchanged economic structures; property inventories and consumer sentiment may worsen, deepening negative effects.