2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_United_States_Selected_Issues_119页_1mb

Summary of the United States Selected Issues Paper (August 2012)

Core Content

This document is a Selected Issues Paper prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the United States. It provides an in-depth analysis of several key economic issues, including household saving and wealth dynamics, the residential construction sector, output losses following financial crises, long-term unemployment, and the implications of U.S. tax reforms on international spillovers. The paper is based on data up to July 13, 2012, and is structured into seven main sections, each addressing a specific issue.

Main Sections and Key Points

I. U.S. Household Wealth and Saving: The Micro Story Behind the Macro Dynamics

• Objective: Understand the drivers of aggregate savings using micro-level data.
• Key Findings:
  • Households with lower income growth experienced larger declines in saving rates and higher increases in indebtedness before the 2008 crisis.
  • Households with a significant share of wealth in housing saw a sharp rebound in saving rates post-crisis.
  • Despite aggregate recovery, many households have not rebuilt their net worth to pre-crisis levels.
  • Saving behavior is influenced by income growth, housing dependency, and debt-to-income ratios.

II. The Residential Construction Sector: When Will it Emerge from its Rubble?

• Objective: Analyze the excess housing stock and its implications for recovery.
• Key Findings:
  • There is a significant excess housing stock, with housing prices still below peak levels.
  • The recovery in household formation is expected to be slow due to the housing market's imbalance.
  • Different regions and market types (ownership vs. rental) show varying degrees of excess vacancy.
  • The paper suggests that housing construction will need to adjust to the current excess inventory.

III. Output Losses Following Financial Crises—A Sensitivity Analysis

• Objective: Assess the impact of financial crises on output.
• Key Findings:
  • Output losses after financial crises vary depending on the definition of trends and the time window considered.
  • The Great Depression, S&L Crisis, and Great Recession are analyzed to understand output behavior.
  • The paper highlights the importance of trend definitions in measuring output losses.

IV. Is Long-Term Unemployment Pushing Up Structural Unemployment?

• Objective: Investigate the link between long-term unemployment and structural unemployment.
• Key Findings:
  • Long-term unemployed individuals face lower labor force participation and reduced job matching efficiency.
  • Evidence suggests that long-term unemployment may lead to a permanent loss of employability.
  • Policy recommendations include targeted support to help long-term unemployed re-enter the labor market.

V. Raising Revenues from U.S. Personal Income Tax Expenditures—OECD Perspective

• Objective: Evaluate tax expenditures and their impact on revenue.
• Key Findings:
  • Tax deductions for mortgage interest, state and local taxes, and charitable contributions reduce government revenue.
  • Eliminating these deductions could significantly increase tax revenue.
  • The paper suggests that the impact of tax changes depends on the specific expenditure and the economic context.

VI. International Spillovers from U.S. Corporate Tax Reform

• Objective: Analyze the potential global effects of U.S. tax reforms.
• Key Findings:
  • A reduction in the corporate income tax (CIT) rate could lead to increased corporate investment and tax revenue.
  • Broadening the CIT base may offset the revenue loss from lower rates.
  • The paper discusses the implications of territoriality and minimum taxes on foreign earnings.

VII. United States Foreclosure Crisis: Can Modification of the Personal Bankruptcy Framework Facilitate Residential Mortgage Restructuring?

• Objective: Explore the role of bankruptcy law in addressing the mortgage crisis.
• Key Findings:
  • The U.S. bankruptcy code does not effectively support mortgage restructuring.
  • Chapter 13 and Chapter 12 procedures are discussed as potential reforms.
  • The paper recommends changes to the bankruptcy framework to better facilitate mortgage modifications and balance sheet repair.

Key Information

• The Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) is the primary dataset used, capturing longitudinal data on U.S. households.
• The PSID data shows that households with lower income growth had more pronounced declines in saving rates and increases in debt before the crisis.
• Housing wealth remains below peak levels, especially for middle-income groups, contributing to lower saving rates.
• The personal saving rate in the PSID is generally lower than the NIPA rate due to the exclusion of pension savings and the concentration of PSID data on middle-income households.
• Excess housing stock and low household formation indicate a structural issue in the residential construction sector.
• Long-term unemployment may lead to a permanent reduction in labor market participation and efficiency.
• Tax expenditures such as mortgage interest deductions and charitable contributions significantly reduce government revenue.
• The U.S. corporate tax reform could have international spillover effects, particularly on investment and competitiveness.
• The bankruptcy framework needs reform to better support mortgage restructuring and balance sheet recovery.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes the heterogeneity in household saving and wealth dynamics, highlighting that not all households have experienced the same economic conditions. It suggests that middle-income households are more vulnerable to the housing crisis and have not fully recovered their net worth. The analysis also underscores the importance of structural reforms in the housing and tax sectors to promote recovery and long-term economic stability.