2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Jordan_Selected_Issues_32页_1mb

Summary of "Jordan: Selected Issues" (March 26, 2012)

Core Content

This document, prepared by the IMF staff, provides an in-depth analysis of several key economic issues facing Jordan, including energy subsidies, oil price impacts, reserve adequacy, financial conditions, and growth drivers. It also outlines structural reforms necessary for fostering inclusive growth and improving the business environment.

Main Points and Key Information

I. Energy Subsidies: Fiscally Burdensome and Inequitable

• Fiscal Impact: Energy price subsidies accounted for nearly 6% of GDP in 2011, a significant increase from 2010.
• Reasons for Increase:
  • Rising international energy prices.
  • Freeze on fuel prices in early 2011.
  • Disruptions in gas supply from Egypt.
• Inequity:
  • Subsidies disproportionately benefit higher-income households.
  • The richest quintile receives over 25% more in energy subsidies than the poorest.
  • Gasoline and diesel subsidies leak most to the rich.
• Cost Inefficiency:
  • A dinar transferred to the bottom two quintiles through gasoline subsidies costs the budget about JD 5.
  • Targeted social assistance programs would be more effective and less costly.

II. Oil Prices and the Jordanian Economy

• Spillover Effects:
  • Oil price increases have both direct and indirect impacts on Jordan's GDP.
  • Direct Effect: Higher import costs.
  • Indirect Effect: Increased external income from FDI, remittances, and grants.
• Empirical Findings:
  • A 10% increase in oil prices leads to a 2.5% rise in Jordan's GDP after 10 quarters.
  • External income inflows from the GCC and other oil-exporting countries are expected to remain stable due to long-term oil production capacity.
• Policy Implications:
  • Diversification of external income sources (e.g., increasing FDI and reducing reliance on transfers) is recommended to reduce vulnerability to oil price volatility.

III. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Jordan

• Approaches Used:
  • Traditional metrics (import cover, short-term debt, broad money).
  • Reserve optimizing model (Jeanne and Rancière, 2006).
  • Risk-weighted metric (IMF).
• Findings:
  • Jordan's actual reserve levels are higher than the minimum suggested by all three approaches.
  • For a fixed exchange rate regime, the risk-weighted metric suggests 100–150% coverage as adequate.
  • Jordan's reserves have consistently exceeded this range in the last decade.
• Conclusion:
  • Reserves are more than adequate for conventional risks, but no single measure is comprehensive.
  • Other factors such as central bank swap lines, sovereign wealth funds, and IMF credit lines are also important for crisis prevention.
  • Sound macroeconomic and prudential policies are more critical than reserves in limiting vulnerabilities.

IV. Jordan - Financial Conditions Index

• Definition and Purpose:
  • The FCI measures the contribution of domestic financial conditions to real economic activity.
  • It includes variables such as exchange rates, credit conditions, asset prices, and risk premiums.
• Findings for 2011:
  • Financial conditions in Jordan were relatively tight in the second half of 2011.
  • This was due to a depreciating real exchange rate, declining stock prices, and moderate credit growth.
  • The policy rate was slightly increased, but the spread to the U.S. rate remained low.
• Implications:
  • The FCI serves as a useful tool for assessing monetary policy stance and forecasting real output.

V. Drivers of Growth in Jordan

• Growth Trends:
  • Jordan experienced an average real GDP growth of 6% between 2000 and 2010.
  • Growth peaked at 8% in 2007, then declined post-2007 due to the global financial crisis.
  • Projected recovery in the medium term.
• Sector Contributions:
  • "Other services" (mainly finance and insurance) has been the largest contributor to GDP growth over the last three decades.
  • "Manufacturing" has also played a significant role, especially from 2000 to 2010.
  • "Trade, restaurants and hotels" has declined in relative size, while "Government services" and "Transport and communications" have remained important.
• Structural Reforms:
  • Improving the business environment is essential for job creation and inclusive growth.
  • Jordan ranks below average in several areas of the World Bank’s Doing Business Report 2011, including:
    • Ease of doing business (rank 96).
    • Getting credit (rank 150).
    • Paying taxes (rank 21).
    • Trading across borders (rank 58).
  • Reducing the number of procedures and their associated costs and time is critical.
  • Strengthening legal rights and improving credit information systems would enhance the business environment.

Conclusion

The document highlights the challenges posed by energy subsidies, the impact of oil prices on the economy, the adequacy of international reserves, the financial conditions in Jordan, and the key drivers of economic growth. It underscores the need for structural reforms to improve the business environment, enhance financial inclusion, and ensure more equitable distribution of subsidies. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic stability and diversified external income sources in reducing vulnerability to external shocks.