2023-12-04-IMF-佛得角_技术援助报告-消费者价格指数-英-14页_14页_425kb

Summary of IMF Technical Assistance Report on Cabo Verde Consumer Price Index

Mission Outcomes

The mission, conducted July 17-21, 2023, aimed to assist INECV in improving and updating the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Key outcomes included reviewing CPI compilation methods, addressing a recent calculation error, and agreeing on a work plan for future updates.

Priority Recommendations

• December 2023: Review and confirm existing variety sample; identify new items using preliminary HIES data.
• January 2024: Define headline inflation as the annual 12-month rate of change.

Main Findings

• Weights: Current CPI weights from the 2015 HIES are outdated and need updating using new data from the 2023 HIES.
• Item and Variety Samples: Handle missing prices by imputing seasonal and non-seasonal items; allow up to six months for temporary missingness; eliminate seasonal windows.
• Index Calculation: Adopt the Modified Young index for flexibility; discontinue carry-forward methods for missing prices.
• Price Reference Period: Stop annual updates and update only with weight changes; implement fixed reference period.
• Rent Survey: Use a panel survey with annual rotation; include both market and subsidized rents.
• Headline Inflation Rate: Headline inflation based on 12-month change, not rolling average.

Actions Needed

• Update weights and baskets using COICOP 2018 classification.
• Enhance index calculation system to reflect recommended formulas.
• Augment rental unit sample and implement formal panel approach.
• Link old and new CPI data series for seamless transition.

Timeline for Implementation

• December 2023-2024: Confirm variety samples, identify new items, adjust rent threshold.
• January 2024-2025: Define headline inflation, begin new index calculations.
• CPI Introduction: New CPI expected by January 2025.