2050年前能源_电力与核能发展预测_148页_2mb

Summary of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates up to 2050

Core Content

This document provides energy, electricity and nuclear power estimates for the period up to 2050, organized into world and regional sections. It is part of the IAEA Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1), in its 44th edition, and is based on the latest available data from 2023.

Main Views

Global Nuclear Power Development

• Global nuclear operational capacity at the end of 2023 was 372 GW(e).
• Two scenarios are presented: low case and high case.
  • Low case projects an increase of 40% to 514 GW(e) by 2050.
  • High case projects an increase to 2.5 times the current capacity, reaching 950 GW(e) by 2050.
• Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are expected to contribute 24% of the capacity added in the high case and 6% in the low case.

Global Electricity and Energy Trends

• Electricity remains the second largest energy source in final energy consumption, with a 20.2% share in 2023.
• Coal remains the main energy source for electricity production, contributing over one third of total electricity in 2023.
• Natural gas has almost doubled its share in electricity production since 1980.
• Hydro and nuclear are the largest low-carbon electricity sources, with nuclear contributing 9.2% of global electricity production in 2023.
• Wind and solar have seen a rapid increase, with their combined share reaching 13% in 2023.

Projections

• Final energy consumption is projected to decrease by 2% by 2050 due to increased efficiency and electrification.
• Electricity production is expected to more than double by 2050, growing at an average annual rate of 2.8%.
• The share of electricity in final energy consumption is expected to increase by over 20 percentage points to 43.8% by 2050.

Nuclear Capacity Projections

• Total electrical generating capacity is expected to increase by 12% by 2030 and more than double by 2050.
• In the high case, nuclear capacity is projected to increase to 950 GW(e) by 2050.
• In the low case, nuclear capacity is projected to increase to 514 GW(e) by 2050.
• The share of nuclear in total capacity is expected to increase by 0.6 percentage points in the high case and decrease by 1.6 percentage points in the low case by 2050.

Reactor Retirements and Additions

• Two-thirds of reactors have been in operation for more than 30 years, and 30% for more than 40 years.
• In the high case, 84 GW(e) of nuclear capacity is expected to be retired by 2050, resulting in net capacity additions of 557 GW(e).
• In the low case, 166 GW(e) of nuclear capacity is expected to be retired, resulting in net capacity additions of 122 GW(e).

Nuclear Electricity Production Projections

• Total electricity production is expected to increase by 16% by 2030 and more than double by 2050.
• In the high case, nuclear electricity production is expected to almost triple from 2023 levels, reaching 7,666 TW·h.
• In the low case, nuclear electricity production is expected to increase by 60%, reaching 4,157 TW·h.
• The share of nuclear in total electricity production is expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points in the high case and decrease by 2.3 percentage points in the low case.

Key Information

• Data Sources: Includes data from the IAEA's Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), external expert estimates, and national projections.
• Assumptions: The low case assumes continued current trends, while the high case includes ambitious policies and supportive measures such as investment, regulatory collaboration, and workforce development.
• Challenges: Many countries face aging reactors, lack of investment, and regulatory hurdles in expanding nuclear capacity.
• Enabling Factors: For nuclear to reach the high case, national policies, investment in new technologies, grid development, and international cooperation are necessary.
• Climate Context: The COP28 pledge to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 is highlighted as a key driver for nuclear expansion.
• Uncertainties: The growth in electricity demand is uncertain, influenced by the digital economy, transport electrification, and industrial processes.

Regional Breakdown

Conclusion

This document outlines plausible trends and projections for energy, electricity, and nuclear power up to 2050, emphasizing the importance of nuclear in low-carbon energy systems and the need for supportive policies and investments to achieve the high case projections. It highlights global and regional differences in nuclear development, challenges in maintaining and expanding nuclear capacity, and the potential impact of climate goals on the future of nuclear energy.