Capgemini__巴黎银行-2017年全球支付报告（英文）-52页-2mb

报告摘要

World Payments Report 2017 Summary

Core Content

The World Payments Report 2017 is a collaborative effort by Capgemini and BNP Paribas, offering an in-depth analysis of the global non-cash transaction environment and its evolution. The report highlights key trends, growth projections, and challenges in the payments industry, emphasizing the role of technology, regulation, and collaboration in shaping the future of payments.

Key Findings

Historical Non-Cash Transaction Volume Analysis

Global non-cash transaction volumes grew by 11.2% during 2014–2015, reaching 433.1 billion, marking the highest growth rate in the past decade.
Emerging Asia and CEMEA were the top growth drivers, with growth rates of 43.4% and 16.4%, respectively.
China climbed to third place in the top-10 non-cash transaction markets in 2015, surpassing Brazil.
Debit cards and credit transfers were the leading digital payment instruments in 2015, with debit cards accounting for 46.7% of global non-cash transactions.
Check usage continued to decline globally, by 13.4% in 2015, due to the rise of electronic payment methods.
Cash remains dominant in low-value transactions, especially in emerging markets, where financial inclusion and demographics play a key role.
Contactless payments are becoming the new normal, particularly in the U.K., where 106.9 million contactless cards were in circulation in 2015.

Forward Looking Analysis

Global non-cash transactions are expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.9% from 2015–2020.
Developing economies will grow at a CAGR of 19.6%, while mature markets are expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.6%.
China and India are projected to be major growth drivers, especially in Emerging Asia, with China's non-cash transaction volume expected to grow at 36.5% CAGR and India's at 26.2% CAGR.
China may overtake the U.S. as the leading non-cash transaction market by 2020.
Emerging economies will likely account for one-third of global non-cash transaction volumes by 2020, growing at three times the rate of mature economies.
Mobile payments are expected to grow significantly, with e- and m-payments taking a 32% share of global non-cash transactions by 2020.
North America and Europe will see modest growth, with 4.3% and 6.5% CAGR, respectively.
Latin America and Africa are expected to witness 8–10% and stable growth, respectively, over the next five years.

Main Trends and Drivers

Technological Innovation

Next-generation payments are being driven by technology innovation, including blockchain, IoT, and biometric authentication.
Blockchain is being explored for secure, real-time collaboration and may facilitate corporate payments and smart contracts.
IoT is expected to redefine payments use cases, such as connected cars becoming new POS systems for in-car services.

Financial Inclusion

Financial inclusion initiatives in Emerging Asia (especially India, Vietnam, and Indonesia) are expected to drive non-cash transaction growth.
Mobile wallets and digital payment solutions are being promoted by governments and financial institutions to increase banked citizen populations and access to digital services.

Regulatory and Industry Initiatives

PSD2 and other regulatory frameworks are pushing for standardization and transparency in the payments industry.
Collaboration between banks, FinTechs, and third-party developers is critical for the development of the new payments ecosystem.
Open APIs and instant payments infrastructure are key enablers of the new ecosystem, allowing for real-time payments and innovative solutions.

Challenges

Technical hurdles such as lack of standardization, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and data privacy concerns are slowing the emergence of the new payments ecosystem.
Interchange fee caps in Europe and rising credit card issuance costs may impact credit card transaction volumes.
Market saturation and regulatory constraints may lead to tapering growth rates in certain regions, especially as mobile payments become more widespread.

Strategic Implications

Banks must adapt to new business models and collaborate with FinTechs and third-party developers to remain competitive.
PSPs from China and India are expected to expand into global markets, where higher margins and greater opportunities exist.
Capgemini and BNP Paribas are positioned to lead in payment innovation and digital transformation for the corporate sector.

Conclusion

The World Payments Report 2017 underscores the accelerating shift toward non-cash transactions, driven by technological advancements, regulatory changes, and financial inclusion. While cash still plays a significant role in low-value transactions, the growth of digital payments is expected to continue, especially in emerging markets. The new payments ecosystem is being shaped by collaboration, standardization, and innovation, but technical and regulatory challenges remain critical barriers to its full realization.