世界发展银行-Framework-for-the-Assessment-of-Benefits-of-Action-or-Cost-of-Inaction-for-Drought-Preparedness_61页_4mb

Summary of "Framework for the Assessment of Benefits of Action/Cost of Inaction (BACI) for Drought Preparedness"

Core Content

This working paper presents a Framework for the Assessment of Benefits of Action/Cost of Inaction (BACI) for drought preparedness and mitigation. It is developed by the World Bank and the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), with the aim of promoting a shift from crisis management to proactive risk management in drought response. The framework is designed to guide policymakers and practitioners in evaluating the economic and social implications of drought risk management strategies, emphasizing the importance of systematic, forward-looking assessments.

Main Viewpoints

• Drought is a complex phenomenon with both direct and indirect impacts on agriculture, water, health, environment, and socio-economic systems. These impacts are often exacerbated by vulnerability and lack of resilience.
• The current lack of action on drought risk management is attributed to several factors, including institutional weaknesses, limited political will, and underappreciation of non-climatic drivers of drought risk.
• Reactive responses are common, focusing on immediate crises rather than long-term preparedness, which can lead to inefficient and uncoordinated solutions.
• A proactive approach to drought management involves planning in advance, identifying vulnerable populations, and implementing tailored measures to mitigate drought risk and improve preparedness.
• The BACI framework is proposed as a methodological tool to assess the benefits of taking action against drought and the costs of inaction. It is intended to be tested and refined in real-world contexts.

Key Information

Purpose of the Framework

The BACI framework aims to support a shift in drought policy and programs from reactive crisis management to proactive risk management. It provides a structured approach for assessing the economic and social implications of drought preparedness and mitigation.

Structure of the Framework

The framework is based on a 10-step methodology for developing drought risk management strategies, which was initially proposed by Wilhite (1991) and later codified by the WMO and GWP (2014). These steps are designed to ensure that the BACI assessment is systematic, comparable across countries, and tailorable to local needs.

Key Steps in the BACI Framework

1. Factoring BACI Assessment Expertise into the Oversight Body for Policy Development
2. Integrating BACI Considerations into the Initial Goals and Objectives of a Risk-Based National Drought Management Policy
3. Getting Stakeholder Participation to Obtain Their Knowledge and Views Relevant to the BACI and to Build Their Ownership of the Policy and the BACI Approach
4. Taking Inventory of Assets and Resources and Identifying Groups at Risk to Build Vulnerability Profiles
5. Drafting the Key Tenets of Policy That Will Guide Long-Term Preparedness Planning, Based on the BACI Assessment Tools of Hazard and Impact Assessment and Vulnerability Assessment
6. Identifying Research Needs and Filling Institutional Gaps, Including for BACI Assessments
7. Integrating Science and Policy Aspects in Drought Management, and the Key Role of BACI Assessment
8. The Role of the BACI Assessment Process in Publicizing and Building Public Awareness and Consensus
9. Developing Educational Programs Reflecting the BACI Assessments
10. Evaluating and Revising Policies and Plans and Revisiting BACI Assessments

Challenges in Drought Risk Management

• Complexity of Drought Impacts: Drought unfolds slowly and has wide-ranging impacts, including on agriculture, water, health, environment, and socio-economic systems.
• Vulnerability and Resilience: Understanding and measuring vulnerability and resilience is difficult, especially at the household and local levels.
• Institutional and Political Barriers: Many countries lack the institutional capacity, planning tools, and political will to implement proactive drought risk management.
• Non-climatic Drivers: Factors such as demographics, economic conditions, and governance significantly influence drought vulnerability and impact.

Case Studies

• Somalia: Reactive drought responses have focused on short-term water availability, without addressing underlying vulnerability or long-term resilience.
• Syrian Arab Republic: Drought vulnerability was amplified by economic decline and government indifference, leading to severe socio-economic and environmental consequences.

Conclusion

The BACI framework is a tool for structured assessment that encourages proactive drought risk management. It emphasizes the need for comparability across contexts, stakeholder involvement, and long-term planning. The framework is intended to be tested and refined in various countries, with the goal of improving policy and planning and stimulating positive action.

The paper also highlights the importance of integrating science and policy, and the need for better data and institutional capacity to support effective drought risk management. The next steps include experimenting with the framework in multiple contexts and developing more case study examples to demonstrate its application and benefits.