2005年-世界发展银行全球_Drought___Management_and_Mitigation_Assessment_for_Central_Asia_and_the_Caucasus_112页_5mb

Drought Management and Mitigation in Central Asia and the Caucasus

Core Content

This report, authored by the World Bank's Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Department, focuses on drought management and mitigation in Central Asia and the Caucasus, using the 2000-01 drought as a case study. It evaluates the causes, impacts, and responses to drought in the region, highlighting the need for improved institutional frameworks, early warning systems, and long-term strategies to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience.

Main Points

A. Introduction and Objectives

• Drought as a Recurrent Phenomenon: Drought is a recurring issue in Central Asia and the Caucasus, requiring proactive management to prevent economic and social damage.
• Objective: To summarize the causes of the 2000-01 drought and outline a strategy for future drought preparedness and mitigation.
• Economic Impact: The 2000-01 drought caused an estimated $800 million in lost agricultural production.
• Long-term Climate Trends: Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of drought, necessitating longer-term adaptation strategies.

B. Vulnerability to Drought

1. Geographical Vulnerability

• Caucasus Countries:

  • Humid, sub-tropical climate in Western Georgia.
  • Reliance on snowmelt and winter/spring rains for water in the Eastern Caucasus.
  • High dependence on irrigation for 44% of Georgia's and 75% of Azerbaijan's cropland.
  • Vulnerability to floods and landslides due to seasonal precipitation and high mountains.

• Central Asian Countries:

  • Extreme continental climate, with strong dependence on winter and spring rains and snowmelt from the Tien Shen and Pamir mountain ranges.
  • Rain-fed pasture and agriculture are predominant, especially in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
  • High vulnerability to drought, floods, and landslides due to the same climatic conditions.

2. Structural Vulnerability

• Economic Dependency on Agriculture:

  • Agriculture accounts for 25-30% of GDP in Central Asian countries.
  • In the Caucasus, agriculture is a major economic component.

• Institutional Weakness:

  • Public services such as weather forecasting, emergency management, and advisory systems were underfunded and poorly coordinated.
  • Early warning systems deteriorated during the 1990s.
  • Lack of cooperation between countries in disaster planning and river basin management.
  • Slow development of agricultural advisory systems for small farmers.
  • Poor maintenance of irrigation infrastructure led to water loss and unreliable delivery.

• Poverty and Social Factors:

  • Rural populations, especially subsistence farmers, herders, and female-headed households, were most vulnerable.
  • Poor access to irrigation, cash income, and clean water increased their exposure to drought.

C. The 2000-01 Drought

• Precipitation and Water Levels:
  • Precipitation was 40-60% of normal.
  • River flows were 35-40% below average.
  • Irrigation water scarcity worsened in downstream areas.
• Impacts:
  • Agricultural Damage: Significant losses in crops and livestock, with damages estimated at $800 million in Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
  • Environmental Damage: Intensified desertification, deforestation, and erosion processes.
  • Socioeconomic Damage: 80% of income loss in rural areas, increased poverty, and malnutrition.
  • Government Response: Initial lack of preparedness, with some countries like Armenia and Uzbekistan coordinating relief efforts more effectively.
• International Support: Relief operations costing at least $187 million were organized, but long-term recovery was limited.

D. Strategic Approach

1. Strategic Pillars

• Strengthened Hydro-Meteorological Monitoring and Forecasting:

  • Need for improved national and regional coordination.
  • Rehabilitation of monitoring networks and development of user-specific services.
  • Priority for the Caucasus, especially Georgia.

• Incorporation into National Development Strategies:

  • Drought management should be integrated into agricultural, rural, and food security strategies.
  • Focus on adapting existing technologies and supporting community-based sustainable practices.
  • Examples include the Natural Resources and Poverty Alleviation Project in Armenia, the Community Agriculture and Watershed Project in Tajikistan, and the Dry Lands Project in Kazakhstan.

• Coordinated Emergency Preparedness, Response, and Recovery Systems:

  • Strengthen institutional frameworks and promote inter-agency cooperation.
  • Increase community participation and support in disaster response.
  • Use vulnerability assessments to guide resource allocation during disasters.

• Long-term Climate Change Strategies:

  • Develop forecasts and strategies to address climate change impacts.
  • Adapt to expected temperature increases and precipitation declines.
  • Implement policies to reduce water-intensive practices and promote conservation.

Key Information

• Drought Impact on Economy: Droughts caused significant economic losses, especially in agricultural sectors.
• Institutional Gaps: Weakness in disaster management institutions and lack of coordination hindered effective response.
• Regional Differences: The Caucasus and Central Asia face different geographical and structural challenges.
• Climate Change Projections: Expected increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation will exacerbate drought conditions.
• Poverty and Vulnerability: Rural populations, particularly subsistence farmers and female-headed households, are most at risk.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive, long-term strategy for drought management and mitigation, including strengthening monitoring systems, integrating drought management into national development plans, and promoting community-based solutions. It also highlights the importance of addressing institutional and structural vulnerabilities to enhance resilience against future drought events.