20251113-瑞达期货-焦煤焦炭产业日报_1页_498kb

Summary of Coking Coal and Coking for 2025/11/13

Market Data

• Futures: Coking coal main contract closing price at 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; coking contract at 1686 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan. Holding volume for coking rose while it fell for coking. Net holding positions for top 20 contracts showed increases for both, and price spreads narrowed.
• S spot: Coking coal prices mixed, with some increases; coking prices mostly stable, with one increase. Basis widened for coking.

Upstream Situation

• Original coal output increased significantly, import volumes declined. Independent washing plant capacity utilization stable, but shipments rose. Port inventories for import coking rose, while total inventory in ports decreased.

Industry Situation

• Coking coal imports increased, production volumes higher; coking exports decreased. Steel production fell, with iron water at seasonal low. Profit margins for independent cokemakers improved slightly, but overall utilization rates dropped. Market outlook cautious due to policy support for renewable energy and industry stability efforts.

Downstream Situation

• Steel output declined, with coking demand slowing. Projects like Ximadu aim for faster output by 2026. Regulatory factors and inventory levels indicated balanced supply-demand.

Key Messages and Views

• Macro environment: Policies focus on sustainable energy development and investment stability, potentially impacting markets.
• Supply-demand: Inventories are neutral to high, affecting prices. Technical analysis suggests broad-range oscillation.
• Investment Advice: Caution with market volatility; monitor risks based on inventory trends and policy changes.