20211012-牛津经济研究院-US_Metro_Economic_Forecast_Los_Angeles_13页_1mb

Los Angeles Economic Forecast Summary

Job Market and Growth

• Los Angeles has recovered only 44% of its lost jobs since the pandemic began, ranking 45th among the largest 50 metropolitan areas.
• Full job recovery is expected in Q1 2023, with an average annual job growth rate of 0.5% from 2023 to 2027.
• Key growing industries include couriers and express delivery (+33.9%), scientific R&D (+4.2%), social services, restaurants, and arts and entertainment.
• Office sector jobs declined 7.6%, affecting 24% of total jobs, expected recovery by Q4 2022 with slow growth afterward.

GDP and Economic Structure

• Los Angeles GDP exceeded its pre-pandemic peak in Q2 2021, with a net growth of 0.5% since the start of the pandemic.
• Projected annual GDP growth of 2.1% through 2027, above the US average, driven by real estate, manufacturing, and broadcasting.
• Employment structure shows dominance in services, with film and tourism being highly dependent sectors.

Population and Migration

• Population decreased by 90,400 (-0.7%) since the pandemic, expected to decline through 2022 before growing at 0.1% annually from 2023.
• Net migration has led to out-migration, but demographic trends suggest slight stabilization post-2022.

Housing and Living Costs

• Housing prices and permits show growth, indicating increased demand for real estate.
• High business and living costs contribute to economic challenges, with limited success in public transportation efforts.

Income and Consumer Spending

• Median household income and disposable income have seen moderate growth, supporting consumer spending.
• Retail sales and consumer expenditure are expected to align with broader economic trends.

Human Capital and Quality of Life

• Los Angeles ranks first in human capital indicators, reflecting a strong talent pool.
• Quality of life is high due to cultural amenities and global links, ranking among the top US metros in these areas.

Economic Outlook and Dependencies

• Recovery in key sectors like film (-7.1% loss, expected full by Q4 2022) and tourism depends on external factors.
• Heavy reliance on services makes the economy sensitive to global and domestic changes, with projections indicating above-average growth in specific sectors.