20211012-牛津经济研究院-US_Metro_Economic_Forecast_New_York_13页_1mb

New York Metro Economic Forecast Summary

Job Market Recovery

• New York has recovered only 49% of lost jobs since the pandemic began, ranking 47th among top 50 metros.
• Expected to fully recover lost jobs by Q3 2023, with average annual job growth of 0.5% through 2027.
• Growth driven by restaurants, healthcare, and education (23.4%, 20.6%, 14.2% respectively).
• Finance sector expected to recover in 2022 but stabilize from 2023 onward.

GDP and Economic Growth

• GDP experienced a 0.9% net decline but is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels in Q4 2021.
• Annual GDP growth projected at 1.9%, slightly below the U.S. average of 2%.
• Growth led by real estate, data processing, and professional services.

Key Industries

• Tech sector and international companies (e.g., Amazon, Facebook) are investing, fueling job and GDP growth.
• Tourism decline and office sector exodus impacted jobs, with 176,900 office positions lost, accounting for 19% of total job losses.
• Office jobs expected to recover by Q4 2022, with annual growth of 0.4% from 2023 to 2027.

Living Costs and Infrastructure

• High business and living costs, with needs for capital investment in infrastructure and regulatory reforms.
• Tech investment in areas like Hudson Square signaling a return to preferred locales for firms.

Rankings

• Economic scale ranks 12th out of 382 U.S. metros.
• Human capital ranks 11th.
• Quality of life ranks 4th.

Population and Migration

• Population growth of 0.2% since 2015, with 47,900 net increase, but some out-migration noted.
• Net migration forecast positive but depends on economic conditions.

Outlook

• New York's economy is rebounding slowly, with strengths in finance, tech, and real estate, but challenges remain in job recovery and cost pressures.