2021-11-18-牛津经济研究院-Africa_Country_Economic_Forecast_Ethiopia_8页_371kb

Ethiopia declared a state of emergency on November 2, 2021, following advances by the Tigray Defence Force (TDF), which stemmed from the collapse of the previous peace agreement. This escalation in conflict has significantly impacted the economy, leading to a baseline GDP growth forecast of 3.7% for the 2021/22 fiscal year. Reduced household expenditure, lower business investment, and a deteriorating net trade position are key pull factors, though government consumption and key infrastructure projects are expected to provide some offset. Inflation remains high, with a 27.2% CPI in 2021, aggravated by supply shortages in conflict-affected areas, which disrupts food availability and drives prices up.

External vulnerabilities are pronounced: disruptions to trade routes, such as those to Djibouti, could exacerbate external imbalances. High external debt and a weak reserve buffer increase the risk of balance of payments and credit default events. The loss of AGOA benefits and uncertainty around the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) further strain finances, compounded by rising oil prices and climate change risks, which threaten long-term growth potential by amplifying income inequality and fiscal demands.

Politically, Ethiopia is marked by ongoing ethnic tensions and insurgency, with governance changes under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed leading to reforms but also heightened instability. The economy relies heavily on agriculture and public spending, but structural issues like poor diversification and weak manufacturing capacity persist. Climate change exacerbates these risks, with projections indicating temperature rises and erratic rainfall. Overall, the risk score is 8.1/10, reflecting high vulnerabilities in market demand, costs, exchange rates, and sovereign credit, underscored by a failed debt rescheduling attempt under the G20 CF framework.