2017年-世界发展银行全球_Water_Use_and_Reallocation_Implications_for_Economic_Growth___A_Case_Study_of_Rajasthan_80页_1mb

Summary of Water Use and Reallocation: Implications for Economic Growth - A Case Study of Rajasthan (August 2017)

Core Content

This study examines the relationship between water use and economic growth in Rajasthan, analyzing the state's water demand-supply gap and exploring strategies to address it. It evaluates the economic implications of water allocation across key sectors—agriculture, industry, and services—and provides actionable recommendations for improving water management to support the state's growth targets.

Main Points

1. Economic Growth and Water Use Linkage

• Rajasthan, the largest state in India by area, faces significant water stress due to low surface water availability (1.16% of national share) and high groundwater extraction (80% of blocks are overexploited or critical).
• The state's per capita water availability is estimated at 650–780 cubic meters, below the generally accepted threshold of 1,000 cubic meters, and is projected to fall below 450 cubic meters by 2050.
• Rajasthan's 12th Five Year Plan (2012–2017) targets an average annual GSDP growth rate of 7.7%, with specific growth rates of 9.5% for services, 8% for industry, and 3.5% for agriculture.

2. Water Demand-Supply Gap

• The base case scenario (business as usual) predicts that Blue Water demand will increase from 38.85 BCM in 2013–14 to 87.63 BCM in 2024–25, a 126% increase.
• The current water allocation is 86% for agriculture, 3% for industry, and 11% for services (drinking water).
• Even after implementing technical interventions and intra-sectoral changes, the Blue Water demand-supply gap remains at 45%, necessitating inter-sectoral reallocation.

3. Water Intensity and Efficiency Measures

• The study introduces the concept of water intensity (volume of water per unit of GSDP).
• Technical interventions in agriculture, industry, and services can reduce water demand and improve efficiency, with a total annualized cost of USD 1,914 million (INR 116.66 billion).
• These interventions can support an increase in GSDP growth rate from 4.6% to 6.98%.

4. Intra-Sectoral Changes

• A shift in cropping patterns towards less water-intensive crops can reduce agricultural Blue Water demand by 12% while maintaining output.
• Changing the composition of industries (e.g., reducing water-intensive sectors) can reduce industrial water demand by 15.3%.

5. Inter-Sectoral Water Reallocation

• The study suggests reallocating water from less economically productive sectors (e.g., agriculture) to more productive ones (e.g., industry and services).
• One scenario predicts that inter-sectoral reallocation could lead to an overall GSDP growth rate of 6.98%, with 9.5% growth in services, 5.08% in industry, and 0.73% in agriculture.
• Additional growth scenarios, exceeding the targeted GSDP, are also analyzed, showing potential for 7.22% to 9.22% GSDP growth with reallocation.

6. Implementation Strategies

• The study outlines three strategic options:
  • Technical Interventions
  • Intra-Sectoral Composition Changes
  • Inter-Sectoral Water Reallocation
• These options are evaluated for their cost-effectiveness, water-saving potential, and impact on GSDP.
• A cross-sectoral water efficiency program, strengthened governance, and multi-stakeholder engagement are recommended for successful implementation.

Key Findings

• Water scarcity is a critical constraint for Rajasthan's economic growth.
• Agriculture is the largest consumer of water (86%), but its growth rate is the lowest (3.5%).
• Services sector is the most water-efficient and has the highest growth potential.
• Technical interventions and intra-sectoral changes can reduce the demand-supply gap by 55%, but inter-sectoral reallocation is essential to meet the full growth targets.
• The total demand for Blue Water in 2024–25 is expected to be 87.63 BCM, significantly higher than the current supply of 38.85 BCM.
• Water cost curves and scenario analysis are used to guide policy decisions and incentivize water-efficient practices.

Recommendations

• Prioritize cross-sectoral water efficiency initiatives to align with growth targets.
• Strengthen water governance and institutional frameworks to ensure sustainable water use.
• Create a multi-stakeholder forum to guide the transformation of the water sector.
• Implement water-saving technologies in agriculture, industry, and services.
• Reallocate water from agriculture to more economically productive sectors to support growth.

Conclusion

The study emphasizes the need for strategic water management to support Rajasthan's economic growth aspirations. It highlights that water scarcity is a major barrier to achieving the state's GSDP targets and that inter-sectoral reallocation and technical interventions are essential for long-term sustainability and growth. The findings provide a framework for policy and program development, urging the state to adopt a holistic and integrated approach to water resource management.