IHS_Markit-2019年安防技术前沿趋势白皮书（英文）-2019.1-13页_656kb

Security Technologies Top Trends For 2019 Summary

Core Content

This whitepaper by IHS Markit outlines key trends in security technologies for 2019, focusing on video surveillance, access control, critical communications, and cybersecurity. It explores how these technologies are evolving and their implications for the market and end-users.

Main Trends and Key Information

1. Supply Base Changes in 2019

• The professional video surveillance market has become more concentrated, with the top three vendors (Hikvision, Dahua, and Axis Communications) accounting for 40% of market revenues in 2017.
• Despite this concentration, the market remains fragmented with hundreds of small vendors.
• Acquisitions have been common, including major ones like Schneider Electric acquiring Pelco, Hanwha acquiring Samsung Techwin, and Canon acquiring Axis Communications and Milestone Systems.
• IHS Markit expects further M&A activity in 2019, though not on a large scale.
• The top three vendors have grown organically, showing how quickly market shares can shift.

2. Cybersecurity is More Than a Political Football

• Cybersecurity is a major concern in the video surveillance industry due to the increasing connectivity of devices and the relative inexperience of integrators.
• Cybercriminals are targeting IoT markets, including video surveillance, for DDoS attacks and data breaches.
• The industry is beginning to educate users on cybersecurity, but real enforcement via GDPR or other regulations is still limited.
• The lack of GDPR prosecutions in video surveillance suggests that the regulation's impact is not yet significant.
• Vendors that proactively address privacy concerns and promote ethical data use are expected to gain advantage.

3. Deep Learning Analytics at the Edge

• In 2019, deep learning analytics are expected to move from servers and clouds to edge devices, with embedded ASICs becoming more common.
• NVIDIA’s Jetson and Intel’s Myriad X VPU are examples of hardware that support edge-based inferencing.
• Ambarella, HiSilicon, and Qualcomm are developing ASICs tailored for video surveillance.
• IHS Markit predicts that by 2022, 50% of network cameras will include a deep learning accelerator capable of 0.5 to 2 DL TOPS.
• These accelerators are expected to add minimal cost to SOC prices and will complement rather than replace central processing.

4. App Stores for the Security Industry

• App ecosystems for video surveillance are becoming more prevalent, allowing for remote software updates and enhanced functionality.
• These app stores offer greater flexibility and interoperability, enabling the use of best-of-breed components.
• Examples include Huawei’s software-defined camera and the Axis Communications camera application platform.
• Concerns include the limited need for frequent changes to camera functions and the current focus on security rather than business intelligence.
• The app store model could disrupt traditional sales and licensing models in the industry.

5. Electronic Access Control Systems: Year-End Review and Forecast

• The global market for physical electronic access control solutions reached $5.2 billion in 2018, with electronic locks as the largest and fastest-growing product.
• Mobile credentials are expected to become a major trend, with over 10% of new readers compatible with mobile credentials by 2020.
• Access Control as a Service (ACaaS) is gaining traction, especially for small and mid-sized projects.
• BLE beacons are being used for geospositioning in advanced systems, enabling real-time tracking of personnel.
• The market is becoming more competitive, with opportunities for new vendors in smaller projects.

6. SaaS Driving Next Generation Emergency Response

• SaaS is becoming more accepted in the public safety sector, with CAD and RMS systems increasingly deployed via cloud-based solutions.
• Subscription-based services integrate data from various sources, enabling predictive policing and better resource allocation.
• Initiatives like Next Generation 911 and FirstNet are driving the adoption of open architecture systems.
• SaaS supports interoperability and multi-agency collaboration, addressing the gap between consumer and emergency response technologies.

7. Broadband Adoption in the Critical Communications Industry

• Broadband-enabled networks are expanding, especially for private mobile radio (PMR) users, with a mix of commercial and private LTE solutions.
• Hybrid LTE networks are expected to grow due to their combination of private and public infrastructure.
• Revenue projections show significant growth in the critical communications industry:
  • Utilities: $164m in 2018 to $460m in 2022 (+181%)
  • Public Safety: $2.9bn in 2018 to $6.9bn in 2022 (+140%)
  • Transport: $433m in 2018 to $938m in 2022 (+116%)
  • Industrial: $319m in 2018 to $700m in 2022 (+119%)

8. Licensed Mobile Radio Trends Overview

• LMR continues to grow globally, with digital technologies like TETRA, P25, TETRAPOL, and DMR driving adoption.
• TETRA is dominant in public safety, with significant growth expected in the Americas and Asia.
• P25 remains the de-facto standard in North America, with large contracts for network upgrades.
• TETRAPOL is being adopted by high-end government agencies due to its security and resilience.
• Trunked networks are expanding in transportation, utilities, and industrial sectors.

Conclusion

The security technologies landscape in 2019 is marked by increasing concentration in the supply base, the rise of edge computing and deep learning analytics, the expansion of app ecosystems, and the growing adoption of SaaS and broadband solutions. These trends are reshaping the industry, emphasizing the need for adaptability, innovation, and compliance with evolving regulations.