IHS_Markit-2019年安防技术前沿趋势白皮书（英文）-2019.1-13页_663kb

2019 Security Technologies Top Trends Summary

Core Content

IHS Markit's 2019 Security Technologies Trends Whitepaper outlines key developments across video surveillance, access control, critical communications, and cybersecurity. The report highlights how these technologies are evolving, driven by market dynamics, regulatory changes, and technological innovation.

Main Trends and Key Points

1. Supply Base Changes in 2019

• The professional video surveillance market has become more concentrated, with the top three vendors (Hikvision, Dahua, and Axis Communications) capturing 40% of market revenue in 2017.
• Despite this concentration, the market remains fragmented with hundreds of smaller vendors.
• Mergers and acquisitions are expected in 2019 as vendors seek to challenge the top three, but large-scale deals are unlikely.
• New entrants like Huawei, Amazon, and Motorola are increasing competition.

2. Cybersecurity Beyond Politics

• Cybersecurity is a critical concern for the video surveillance industry, especially with the rise of IoT and smart devices.
• Cybercriminals are targeting video surveillance systems due to their relatively weak security measures and lack of experience among integrators.
• While some vendors are promoting "privacy by default" features, there are no officially "GDPR compliant" products.
• The industry is still in the early stages of implementing real cybersecurity measures, similar to the initial phase of GDPR compliance.

3. GDPR and Its Impact on Video Surveillance

• GDPR compliance in video surveillance is still limited, with few actual prosecutions or fines related to the industry.
• The regulation has prompted increased awareness and marketing around privacy, but actual enforcement remains weak.
• Vendors that proactively address privacy concerns are likely to gain an advantage if GDPR becomes more enforceable in 2019.

4. Deep Learning Analytics at the Edge

• In 2019, deep learning analytics are expected to shift from cloud/server-based to edge-based processing.
• Companies like NVIDIA, Intel, and Qualcomm are developing specialized chips for this purpose.
• ASIC SOCs are anticipated to reduce costs and power consumption, making them suitable for mass-market adoption.
• By 2022, IHS Markit predicts that 50% of network cameras will include a deep learning accelerator with 0.5 to 2 DL TOPS performance.

5. App Stores for the Security Industry

• App ecosystems for video surveillance are becoming more common, driven by increased edge processing and decentralized architecture.
• These platforms allow for remote software updates and new capabilities, though there are concerns about the frequency of changes and the need for security.
• App stores could disrupt traditional sales and licensing models, promoting greater integration and flexibility.
• Examples include Huawei's software-defined camera and the Axis Communications app platform.

6. Electronic Access Control Systems

• The global market for physical electronic access control solutions reached over $5.2 billion in 2018, with electronic locks representing 40% of the market.
• Mobile credentials are expected to revolutionize access control systems, with over 10% of new readers in 2020 anticipated to be compatible with mobile credentials.
• Access Control as a Service (ACaaS) is gaining traction, especially for smaller projects with fewer than 50 doors.
• Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) beacons are being integrated for real-time geolocation in advanced systems.

7. SaaS Driving Next Generation Emergency Response

• SaaS is becoming more prevalent in emergency response technologies, particularly in computer-aided dispatch (CAD) and records management systems (RMS).
• Vendors like Mark43 and Omnigo have seen high adoption rates of SaaS-based solutions.
• SaaS supports predictive and preventative policing by integrating data from multiple sources and applying analytics.
• Public safety initiatives such as Next Generation 911 and FirstNet are accelerating the adoption of open architecture systems.

8. Broadband Adoption in Critical Communications

• Broadband-enabled networks are expanding in the critical communications industry, with private/hybrid LTE networks becoming more common.
• Broadband solutions are seen as complementary to Licensed Mobile Radio (LMR), rather than a replacement.
• The ETSI MCPTT Plugtests™ event demonstrated the potential for integrating broadband with mission-critical communication.

9. Licensed Mobile Radio (LMR) Trends

• LMR deployments continue to grow globally, with digital technologies like TETRA, P25, and TETRAPOL remaining popular.
• TETRA is the dominant technology in Europe, while P25 is the standard in North America.
• The U.K. plans to extend its Airwave TETRA network until 2022.
• TETRAPOL is used by high-end government agencies for secure and resilient communication.
• Cost-optimized digital solutions are expected to expand in commercial and public safety sectors.

Revenue Projections by Sector (2018–2022)

• Utilities: $164m → $460m (181% increase)
• Public Safety: $2.9bn → $6.9bn (140% increase)
• Transport: $433m → $938m (116% increase)
• Industrial: $319m → $700m (119% increase)

These projections include revenues from infrastructure, mobile services, applications, LTE devices, managed services, and system integration.

Key Analysts

• Jon Copley – Senior Principal Analyst - Video Surveillance
• Niall Jenkins – Cybersecurity Analyst
• Josh Woodhouse – Research Director - Security Technologies
• Oliver Philippou – Analyst on Deep Learning Analytics
• Bryan Montany – Analyst on Access Control Systems
• Alex Richardson – Analyst on SaaS in Emergency Response
• Jesus Gonzalez-Medina – Analyst on Broadband Adoption
• Ryan Darrand – Analyst on LMR Trends

Conclusion

The 2019 Security Technologies Trends Whitepaper from IHS Markit provides insights into the evolving landscape of security technologies, emphasizing the shift towards edge computing, SaaS, and the increasing importance of cybersecurity and compliance. It also highlights the continued growth of the access control and critical communications markets, with new entrants and technological advancements shaping the future of these sectors.