2019年全球时尚及奢侈品行业私募基金和投资者调研（英文版）_40页_11mb

Fashion & Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the Fashion & Luxury (F&L) industry's M&A trends and investor strategies for 2018 and 2019. It highlights the dynamics of the market, including deal volumes, sector performance, and the evolving strategies of both strategic and financial investors.

Key Takeaways

• Market Growth Expectations:
  Investors expect the F&L industry to grow by 5–10% annually over the next three years.

  • Personal Luxury Goods (PLG): Projected to grow at ~4% CAGR (reaching 1.1x 2018 sales index by 2021).
  • Other Luxury Sectors: Expected to grow at ~6% CAGR (reaching 1.2x 2018 value by 2021).
  • Strong Growth Sectors: Cosmetics & Fragrances, Furniture, and Digital Luxury Goods are expected to grow by >10% annually.
  • Consolidating Sectors: Apparel & Accessories, Hotels, and Restaurants are expected to grow at 5–10%.
  • Declining Sectors: Cars and Private Jets are forecast to decline, while Yachts, Watches & Jewellery, and Selective Retailing are expected to remain stable.

• M&A Trends in 2018:

  • A total of 265 M&A deals were registered in 2018, a 47-deal increase compared to 2017.
  • Europe saw the most significant increase in deals (+41), driven by the Hotel sector (+29 deals).
  • Asia-Pacific showed a slight increase, mainly due to Watches & Jewellery.
  • North America and Middle East had relatively flat deal numbers compared to 2017.
  • Average deal value remained flat at $233 million in 2018.

• Deal Volume by Sector (2018):

  • Apparel & Accessories: 73 deals (down 4 from 2017)
  • Hotels: 75 deals (up 29)
  • Watches & Jewellery: 28 deals (down 1)
  • Cosmetics & Fragrances: 44 deals (up 16)
  • Furniture: 14 deals (down 3)
  • Private Jets: 9 deals (down 1)
  • Yachts: 8 deals (up 1)
  • Cars (including Electric Cars): 6 deals (up 4)
  • Cruises: 4 deals (up 3)
  • Restaurants: 4 deals (up 3)

• Top Deals in 2018:

  • Beijing Electric Vehicle Ltd. by BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Ltd.: ~$3.62B
  • Belmond Ltd. by LVMH Group: ~$3.31B
  • Gianni Versace SpA by Michael Kors: ~$2.16B
  • Silversea Cruises Ltd. by Royal Caribbean Cruises: ~$1.51B
  • Boat Holdings, LLC by Polaris Industries: ~$717M
  • Ekornes ASA by Qumei Investment: ~$702M

• M&A Features and Strategies:

  • Strategic investors accounted for 56% of all M&A deals in 2018 (up from 47% in 2017).
  • Financial investors were involved in 44% of deals.
  • Buyout strategy was the most common investment approach (38% of deals).
  • Deals with smaller firms increased significantly, with 65% of deals in 2018 targeting companies with sales between $0–$50 million.
  • The EV/EBITDA multiple of 5–10x increased from 17% in 2017 to 42% in 2018.

• 2019 Exit and Investment Strategies:

  • 43% of funds are considering divesting an F&L asset in 2019, up from 35% in 2018.
  • The main exit drivers are: High returns opportunity (38%) and Market trends mismatches (50%).
  • Trade sales are the most common exit method (63% of cases), with a decreasing trend in the expected EBITDA multiple (from 44% in 2018 to 33% in 2019 for multiples >10x).
  • 70% of funds are considering investing in an F&L asset in 2019, with Apparel & Accessories and Cosmetics & Fragrances being the most attractive sectors (79% each).
  • Digital disruption is a major focus, with Artificial Intelligence, Big Data & Analytics, and the Internet of Things expected to have the largest impact on investor portfolios.
  • The consensus forecast return for 2019 is between 21–30%.

• Investor Trends:

  • Strategic investors are more interested in consolidated sectors such as Apparel & Accessories and Cosmetics & Fragrances.
  • Newcomers are more attracted to experiential luxury (e.g., Luxury Hotels and Restaurants).
  • There is a shift towards smaller-sized companies, with a 10 percentage point increase in deals targeting companies with lower valuations.
  • Digital strategy design is becoming more prominent, with a 20 percentage point increase in interest.

Summary of Key Sectors

• Personal Luxury Goods (PLG):

  • Apparel & Accessories: 73 deals in 2018
  • Cosmetics & Fragrances: 44 deals in 2018
  • Watches & Jewellery: 28 deals in 2018

• Other Luxury Sectors:

  • Luxury Hotels: 75 deals in 2018
  • Furniture: 14 deals in 2018
  • Private Jets: 9 deals in 2018
  • Yachts: 8 deals in 2018
  • Luxury Cars: 6 deals in 2018
  • Luxury Cruises: 4 deals in 2018
  • Luxury Restaurants: 4 deals in 2018
  • Digital Luxury Goods: 2 deals in 2018

Investor Profiles

• Strategic investors represented 51% of bidders in 2018 and were heavily involved in Apparel & Accessories, Hotels, and Cosmetics & Fragrances.
• Financial investors accounted for 44% of bidders, with a slight increase in the number of deals compared to 2017.
• Majority stakes in F&L deals increased to 85% in 2018, driven by the rise of Strategic investors.

Conclusion

The Fashion & Luxury industry continues to attract significant M&A activity and private equity interest, with a growing emphasis on digital transformation and strategic consolidation. While some sectors are expected to grow rapidly, others face challenges, particularly in the automotive and private jet industries. Asia and the Middle East are seen as key growth regions, and investors are increasingly focused on smaller companies and digital innovation.