2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_CEPS_Plan_for_the_Balkans_110页_614kb

Summary of "The CEPS Plan for the Balkans"

Core Content

The CEPS Plan for the Balkans, developed by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in collaboration with the Europa South-East Policy Forum, outlines a comprehensive strategy for the post-war reconstruction and integration of South-East Europe into the European Union (EU). It was created in response to the NATO bombing campaign in Kosovo (March–June 1999) and the need for a unified and effective approach to rebuilding the region.

Main Views

The plan emphasizes the following key areas:

1. European Integration

• The ultimate goal is the full integration of all South-East European countries (including Moldova) into the EU.
• The plan calls for accelerated political and economic reforms in the region, supported by the EU.
• It advocates for a two-way interaction between the EU and the Balkan countries, with the region taking an active role in shaping its future.

2. Trade and Market Policies

• Free trade within the region should be established by 1.1.2000.
• Zero tariffs on EU imports from the region should be implemented by 1.1.2000.
• Tariff reductions on imports from the EU should be phased in by 1.1.2003.
• Balanced agricultural concessions should be introduced by 1.1.2000 to support regional exports.
• A multilateral free trade area including the EU, EFTA, CEFTA, and accession candidate countries should be achieved by 1.1.2003.
• Budgetary support from the EU is proposed for countries with weak tax resources to compensate for lost customs revenues, conditional on cooperation with EU customs and port facilities.

3. Monetary Regimes

• The euro is expected to become a key element in the region's monetary stabilization.
• Radical banking reforms are recommended, supported by the EU.
• A currency board based on the euro-DM model could be introduced by 1.1.2000 for weaker economies.
• A European Monetary Association Agreement should be designed starting from 1.1.2000 for countries aiming for full euro-isation.
• Full euro adoption is proposed by 1.1.2003 for countries that meet the necessary conditions.

4. Reconstruction and Investment

• The European Agency for Reconstruction (EAfR) should be part of a broader South-East European Infrastructure Initiative.
• The initiative includes:
  • Immediate priorities such as bridges across the Danube.
  • Financing through the European Investment Bank (EIB), EBRD, and IBRD.
  • A shift to modern standards of public-private partnerships (PPP) and "build-operate-transfer" (BOT) methods.
  • A regulatory authority to oversee infrastructure development and privatization.
• The investment climate needs to be improved through:
  • Clear and clean economic ground rules.
  • Support for SMEs via micro-loans.
  • Local procurement and joint ventures with EU firms.
  • A new Environmental Partnership to address current and post-war environmental priorities.

5. Social Safety Net

• The plan identifies three major categories of need:
  • Refugees and internally displaced persons.
  • Persons unemployed or disabled due to war.
  • Those unemployed due to the transition to a market economy.
• Instruments include:
  • UNHCR for refugee support.
  • World Bank for sector-specific restructuring.
  • EU Social Fund for retraining and job creation.
• The EU should expand its use of these mechanisms in the region, including pre-accession strategies and local partner selection.

6. Democracy, Civil Society, and Education

• Membership in the Council of Europe and adherence to its human rights conventions are necessary for EU integration.
• A South-East European Foundation for Democracy is proposed to support civil society, independent media, and educational institutions.
• The foundation should focus on:
  • Strengthening independent judiciaries, media, political parties, and local governance.
  • Supporting educational cooperation, including curriculum revision and textbook renewal.
  • Establishing regional educational institutions like the Central European University and the College of Europe, with a third campus in the region.

7. Budgets and Financing

• The EU is expected to be the main financier of the region.
• A $5 billion annual budget is proposed for the "5" countries of the former Yugoslavia and Albania over five years.
• Capital financing will come from the EIB, World Bank, and EBRD, with private investment becoming a major source if the investment climate improves.
• The EU should support vital regional programs through budgetary allocations, without fixed quotas by country.

8. Military and Civilian Security

• A new security system is needed, involving alliances, guarantees, and partnerships.
• The EU should establish Special Security Agreements with individual countries to facilitate:
  • Police cooperation (including with Europol).
  • Judiciary cooperation (institutional support and training).
  • Immigration and visa rules leading to visa-free travel and eventual Schengen membership.
• The EU should show openness to expanding visa-free categories, but this depends on individual country performance in border control and security.

9. Conditionality and Engagement

• Some policies and assistance should be unconditional, such as:
  • Free trade.
  • Support for non-governmental institutions.
  • Humanitarian aid.
• Conditionality for EU membership includes:
  • Copenhagen criteria for political institutions and economic performance.
  • Schengen and EU membership conditions for associate members.
• Specific conditionality for Serbia includes:
  • Unconditional participation in free trade.
  • Support for civil society, media, and education without reinforcing a pariah government.
  • Lifting all sanctions except for arms and asset freezes.
  • Encouraging political change in line with European norms.
• Montenegro should not be a hostage to Serbia and should be encouraged to participate in the Stability Pact.

10. EU Integration Pathways

• Full membership for Bulgaria and Romania is proposed by 1.1.2000.
• Full membership for Slovenia and Hungary is proposed by 1.1.2003.
• Associate membership should be introduced by 1.1.2000 for Albania and Macedonia.
• The process from associate to full membership depends on individual progress and regional cooperation.

Key Information

• The CEPS Plan was the result of an emergency initiative launched in late 1998 by CEPS.
• It was refined and adopted by the Europa South-East Policy Forum in the Ljubljana Declaration (18–20 July 1999).
• The Declaration was signed by 35 individuals from 25 policy institutes across the region, including Serbia, Montenegro, and Kosovo.
• The plan emphasizes cooperation, reforms, and EU support in achieving stability and integration.
• A regional network (Europa South-East) is proposed to monitor and support the implementation of the Stability Pact and EU strategies.
• The CEPS Plan remains a benchmark for evaluating future EU and regional policies.

Conclusion

The CEPS Plan represents a forward-looking strategy for the post-war Balkans, focusing on economic integration, monetary reform, reconstruction, democracy, and security. It calls for a collaborative approach between the EU and the Balkan countries, with the region playing an active role in shaping its own future. The plan is seen as a starting point for a mutually reinforcing development process that could lead to long-term stability and prosperity.