斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Post_24页_1mb

Post-Cold War Security in and for Europe

Core Content

The end of the Cold War marked a significant shift in the security landscape of Europe, characterized by the dissolution of the Warsaw Treaty Organization and the collapse of the bipolar system. This period saw the reunification of Germany, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the emergence of numerous new states from the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. These changes led to a reconfiguration of military structures, doctrines, and expenditures across Europe.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Geopolitical Changes and New Conflicts

• The dissolution of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to the creation of new states, which in turn brought about new conflicts.
• Russia faced internal challenges due to its multi-ethnic population and unresolved border disputes.
• Caucasus became a hotbed of conflict with wars in Nagorno-Karabakh, Nakhichevan, and Georgia.
• Moldova experienced internal conflict in the Trans-Dniester region, which sought independence.
• The CSCE was called upon to mediate these conflicts and was expected to enhance its effectiveness.

2. Military Changes and Reductions

• Nuclear weaponry: The De-MIRVing Agreement between the US and Russia (1992) aimed to reduce strategic nuclear weapons to 3000-3500 warheads by 2003, with significant reductions compared to the START Treaty.
• Conventional weaponry: There were substantial reductions in military equipment and personnel across Europe, with many NATO and former Soviet states decreasing their holdings.
• Arms control commitments: The CFE Treaty was established to limit conventional arms, with specific reductions in tanks, armored combat vehicles (ACVs), artillery, aircraft, and helicopters.

3. Arms Production and Exports

• Arms production in Western Europe saw a decline in dependence on arms sales, with many companies reducing their involvement in the industry.
• Arms exports from European countries and the former USSR dropped significantly after 1989, especially from France and the UK, which were once the top arms exporters.
• Germany increased its arms export share, while Yugoslavia saw a temporary spike in exports to Kuwait in 1991, which was not sustained in 1992.

4. Military Expenditure Trends

• Military spending in Europe (excluding the USSR) increased in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but the trend was expected to stabilize as the Cold War era ended.
• NATO and former Soviet Union countries saw varying degrees of reduction in military expenditure, with some nations significantly lowering their budgets.

Summary of Key Tables

Strategic Nuclear Forces (1992 and Projected 2003)

CFE Treaty Limits on Conventional Arms (1992)

Arms Production in Western Europe (1990)

• 20 out of 34 leading arms-producing companies announced significant layoffs in 1991.
• Employment in the arms industry in NATO countries is projected to decline by 485,000–650,000 by 1995.

European Arms Exports (1989–1991)

• US arms exports remained stable.
• Europe and former USSR saw a dramatic decline in arms exports post-1989.
• France and UK were the leading European arms exporters, but their exports dropped significantly.
• Germany increased its arms export share and value after 1989.
• Yugoslavia had a temporary boost in exports to Kuwait in 1991, which was not continued in 1992.

Conclusion

The post-Cold War era ushered in a new phase of European security, marked by the reduction of nuclear and conventional arms, the emergence of new states, and the need for new mechanisms to manage conflicts and promote peace. The CSCE and CFE Treaty played crucial roles in shaping the new security architecture, although challenges remained in adapting to the changing geopolitical landscape.