2024-09-23-麦肯锡-数字量子技术监测_103页_16mb

Quantum Technology Monitor 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Quantum Technology Monitor 2024 provides a comprehensive overview of the quantum technology (QT) market, including investments, competitive landscape, and economic potential. It covers three main areas: quantum computing (QC), quantum communication (QComm), and quantum sensing (QS), and outlines the global development of QT, focusing on innovation, talent, and public-private funding dynamics.

Main Points

• QT Ecosystem Maturity: The QT ecosystem is progressing toward unlocking an estimated economic value of $2 trillion by 2035, driven by technological breakthroughs and increased public funding.
• Investment Trends:
  • Total annual QT start-up investment decreased by 27% YoY in 2023, but public funding increased significantly, reaching ~$42 billion globally.
  • The majority of funding went to established start-ups (founded 5+ years), with only 13 new QT start-ups in 2023.
  • The United States remains the largest recipient of private investment, followed by the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union.
• Market Size Projections:
  • Quantum computing is expected to reach $28B–$72B by 2035 and $45B–$131B by 2040.
  • Quantum communication is projected to reach $11B–$15B by 2035 and $24B–$36B by 2040.
  • Quantum sensing is projected to reach $0.5B–$2.7B by 2035 and $1B–$6B by 2040.
  • The total internal market size for QT could reach $173 billion by 2040.
• Technological Breakthroughs:
  • Quantum computing saw advancements in error correction and logical qubit demonstrations, with Microsoft and Quantumum achieving highly reliable logical qubits with significantly reduced error rates.
  • Quantum communication experienced improved performance in quantum key distribution (QKD), longer transmission distances, and increased data rates.
  • Quantum sensing saw development of new techniques to improve the sensitivity of sensors, particularly those based on nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers.

Key Insights

• Investment Shift: While private investments in QT declined, public funding increased, especially from Germany, the UK, South Korea, and India, contributing to a more diverse global QT development landscape.
• Talent Development:
  • The number of universities with QT research groups increased by 8.3%, reaching 195.
  • Master's degree programs in QT grew by 10%, reaching 55.
  • The European Union leads in QT-related graduate programs and talent density.
• Economic Value:
  • The chemicals, life sciences, finance, and mobility industries are most likely to benefit from QC by 2035, with an estimated $0.9T–$2T in value.
• Deal Sizes and VC Activity:
  • Deal sizes for QT investments decreased, with only 5 out of the top 10 deals in 2023 exceeding $50 million.
  • VC and private capital account for ~80% of QT inflows, but there's a shift toward corporate and government funding as the sector matures.
• Regional Perspectives:
  • North America, Asia, and Europe are highlighted for their innovation clusters and strategic investments.
  • China has significantly increased its public investment in quantum research, focusing on security, defense, and AI.
  • Germany aims to develop a universal quantum computer with 500 qubits by 2035.
  • India launched the National Quantum Mission (NQM) with $730 million in funding.
  • Japan and South Korea also announced substantial public investments to support QT development.

Technological Breakthroughs in 2023

• QC:
  • Microsoft and Quantumum demonstrated logical qubits with error rates 800 times better than physical qubits.
  • IBM showcased 12 logical qubits preserved for ~1 million syndrome cycles using 288 physical qubits.
  • Amazon (AWS) introduced erasure error detection and correction, improving efficiency in error mitigation.
• QComm:
  • Researchers improved quantum key distribution (QKD) performance and demonstrated longer transmission distances and higher data rates.
  • Chinese scientists developed long-distance free-space quantum secure direct communication (LF QSDC), which enhances data security by eliminating the need for key exchange.
• QS:
  • MIT developed the spin echo double resonance (SEDOR) technique to enhance the control of NV center-based sensors.
  • Dark spins in NV centers were identified and controlled using microwave pulses, expanding the potential of quantum sensing.

Key Takeaways

• The QT ecosystem is mature and growing, with public funding playing a critical role in driving innovation.
• QC remains the most promising area with the highest potential economic impact.
• QS and QComm are also advancing, with notable research and development activities.
• The global QT market is expected to reach $173 billion by 2040, with $2 trillion in potential economic value from QC by 2035.
• Innovation clusters in North America, Asia, and Europe are crucial for advancing QT and its applications.