麦肯锡：数字量子技术监测_103页_16mb

Quantum Technology Monitor 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Quantum Technology Monitor 2024 provides an in-depth analysis of the quantum technology (QT) market, focusing on quantum computing (QC), quantum communication (QComm), and quantum sensing (QS). It highlights investment trends, technological advancements, and the global development landscape.

Main Points

• Investment Landscape:

  • Total investments in QT start-ups decreased by 27% YoY in 2023 to $1.7 billion, while public funding increased significantly, reaching ~$42 billion.
  • QC received the most investment, with $6.7 billion in 2023, followed by QComm with $1.2 billion and QS with $0.7 billion.
  • Private investments are declining, with 62% of funding going to companies founded five or more years ago.
  • Venture capital (VC) accounts for nearly 80% of QT inflows, with a shift from VC to corporate and government funding.
  • Top countries in QT investment include the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union.

• Market Size and Value at Stake:

  • The internal market size for QT is expected to reach ~$173 billion by 2040, with QC leading the growth.
  • By 2035, the QC market is projected to be between $28B-$72B, and by 2040, it could reach $45B-$131B.
  • The potential economic value from QC in 2035 could be up to ~$2 trillion, with significant impacts in chemicals, life sciences, finance, and mobility.
  • QComm and QS are also expected to grow, with QComm reaching $11B-$15B and QS reaching $0.5B-$2.7B by 2035.

• Technological Breakthroughs:

  • QC saw major progress in error mitigation and correction, with Microsoft and Quantumum demonstrating logical qubits with error rates 800 times better than physical qubits.
  • IBM showcased 12 logical qubits preserved for ~1 million syndrome cycles using 288 physical qubits, significantly reducing the resource requirement compared to earlier surface codes.
  • Amazon (AWS) introduced "erasure error detection and correction", which improves efficiency in error correction.
  • China developed long-distance free-space quantum secure direct communication (LF QSDC), a technique that enhances data security without the need for key exchange.
  • MIT advanced NV center-based quantum sensing by developing SEDOR (Spin Echo Double Resonance), improving the sensitivity of quantum sensors.

• Scientific Progress:

  • 4,763 QT-related patents were granted in 2022, a 1% increase YoY.
  • 42,155 QT-related publications were released in 2023, a 4.5% decrease YoY, with EU-based scientists leading in contributions.
  • QT master's programs increased by 10% YoY to 55, and universities with QT research groups rose by 8.3% YoY to 195.
  • The European Union and the United Kingdom lead in QT talent and graduates.

• Regional Perspective:

  • North America, Asia, and Europe are the primary regions for QT development.
  • Germany, the UK, South Korea, and India announced significant public funding in 2023, contributing to a more diverse global landscape.
  • China has increased its public funding to over $15 billion for quantum research, with applications in security, defense, and AI.
  • United States and UK remain key players, with $1.2 billion and $3.1 billion in public funding, respectively.

• Innovation Clusters:

  • Innovation clusters are critical for advancing QT through collaboration between government, academia, and industry.
  • Key stakeholders and enablers of these clusters include funding bodies, research institutions, and start-ups.

• Key Insights:

  • New start-ups face challenges in attracting investment due to the preference for established companies.
  • Public funding is a major driver for QT development, especially in defense and security applications.
  • QC presents the largest opportunity with potential ~$1 trillion to $2 trillion value by 2035.
  • QS and QComm are also seeing advancements, though they received less investment compared to QC.

Summary of Key Figures

• Total QT start-up investment in 2023: $1.7 billion
• Total government investment announced: ~$42 billion
• Number of QT start-ups in 2023: 367
• Number of QT-related patents in 2022: 4,763
• Number of QT-related publications in 2023: 42,155
• Number of QT master's programs in 2023: 55
• Number of universities with QT research groups in 2023: 195

Conclusion

The QT ecosystem continues to evolve, with public funding playing a pivotal role in driving growth and innovation. While private investment has slowed, the technological advancements in QC, QComm, and QS indicate a strong future outlook. The market size and value at stake for QT are expected to grow substantially by 2035 and 2040, with QC leading the way in terms of economic potential. Innovation clusters and talent development are key enablers for the continued progress of QT.