麦肯锡-量子一年_从2025年从概念到现实（英）-2025.6_81页_4mb

Quantum Technology Monitor Summary (June 2025)

Core Content Overview

The Quantum Technology Monitor report provides a comprehensive analysis of the quantum technology (QT) market, focusing on quantum computing (QC), quantum communication (QComm), and quantum sensing (QS). It outlines key trends in innovation, investment, and market growth, as well as the strategic positioning of start-ups and major players in the QT ecosystem.

Main Points

1. Technological Innovations and Breakthroughs

• Error Correction Advances: Significant progress in quantum error correction (QEC) has been made in 2024, with companies like Google, IBM, and Microsoft demonstrating high-fidelity logical qubits.
• Logical Qubit Milestones:
  • Google achieved a fidelity of ~99.86% using a distance-7 surface code with 105 physical qubits.
  • IBM showcased high-fidelity "magic states" using a distance-2 code on a 27-qubit Falcon chip.
  • Microsoft introduced the Majorana 1 chip, leveraging topological qubits to enable scalable and fault-tolerant quantum computing.
  • QuEra demonstrated two logical qubits using a 280-physical-qubit neutral atom array.
  • Pasqal developed a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm for detecting conical intersections in molecular systems.
  • Quantinuum achieved fault-tolerant teleportation of a logical qubit using a 30-ion device and the Steane code.
  • Atom Computing used a 256-atom neutral-array processor to run a 28-logical-qubit algorithm with improved error suppression.

2. Market Size and Value at Stake

• The quantum computing market is expected to grow significantly, with QC companies generating $650M–$750M in 2024 and projected to surpass $1B by the end of 2025.
• The QT market is projected to reach $28B–$72B by 2035 and $45B–$131B by 2040, with QComm and QS also showing strong growth trajectories.
• The potential economic value from QC by 2035 is estimated at $0.9T–$2.0T, driven by key industries such as energy, pharmaceuticals, finance, and logistics.

3. Investment Landscape

• Start-up investments in QT grew by ~50% YoY in 2024, totaling $2B.
• Public funding increased by 19 percentage points from 2023 to 2024, indicating growing government support.
• Quantum computing accounts for ~80% of total QT investment, with superconducting technologies receiving the most funding.
• Investment trends show a shift toward early-stage and mature start-ups, with a focus on reducing risk and maximizing return on innovation.

4. Clusters and Start-ups

• Start-ups are increasingly consolidating into clusters, with emerging hubs in Asia and growing clusters in the US at state level.
• EU fragmentation is noted as a factor, with 8 of 19 new QT start-ups originating in the EU.
• Asia is accelerating, with 5 of 19 start-ups, driven by government support and strategic partnerships.

5. Value Chain

• Most new start-ups are focused on equipment and components, and application software.
• The equipment and components segment currently holds the largest market value but is expected to shift toward application software and services over the next decade.
• Lower-risk opportunities in the hardware segment attract significant investment due to its player-agnostic nature.

6. Quantum Communication (QComm)

• Q-Day is the point at which quantum computers can break classical encryption, necessitating early adoption of quantum-safe communication.
• The QComm market size was ~$1.0B in 2023 and is projected to reach $10.5B–$14.9B by 2035, with a CAGR of 22–25%.
• Governments are expected to hold the largest customer share, at 62–66%, with private sector involvement growing rapidly.

7. Impact on Cutting-Edge Technologies

• Quantum technology is a key enabler in the broader disruptive tech ecosystem, offering synergies with AI, machine learning, robotics, sustainability, and cybersecurity.
• AI and machine learning benefit from the computational power of quantum systems.
• Robotics can leverage quantum computing for automation, secure communication, and improved sensing.
• Sustainability and climate tech can benefit from energy-efficient solutions and molecular simulations.
• Cryptography and cybersecurity face both risks and opportunities from quantum capabilities.

Key Insights

• Error correction is now a strategic priority for the QT ecosystem, with breakthroughs in QEC enabling more reliable and scalable quantum computing.
• Quantum control plays a critical role in overcoming technical challenges across different qubit modalities, with analog and digital control techniques being key areas for improvement.
• Cryogenic control is essential for superconducting and spin qubits but less so for photonic networks and neutral atoms.
• Qubit modality challenges vary, with superconducting and spin qubits requiring advanced control systems and neutral atoms and trapped ions benefiting from optical and laser-based techniques.

Conclusion

The quantum technology market is experiencing rapid growth and innovation, with QC leading the investment and development trends. The emergence of logical qubits and advances in error correction are key to achieving scalable and reliable quantum systems. Start-ups are consolidating into clusters, with Asia and the US leading the way. The QComm sector is poised for significant growth due to the Q-Day threat, and quantum technology is expected to synergize with other cutting-edge technologies to drive future advancements.