2025年全球商用车市场的未来及原始设备制造商行动必要性研究报告（英文版）_35页_3mb

Introduction

The heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) industry is undergoing significant transformation due to decarbonization, digitalization, and changing customer preferences. Traditional OEMs face challenges including rising costs from multiple drivetrains, evolving ownership models (e.g., truck-as-a-service, TaaS), and geopolitical uncertainties. This report explores four potential future scenarios for the industry and outlines "no-regret" strategic moves.

Executive Summary

The industry is shifting toward disruptive models driven by emissions regulations, digitalization, and service-based fleet models. By 2035, OEMs may face scenarios ranging from high product complexity to full standardization and from traditional ownership to TaaS. Key trends include:

• Truck-as-a-Service (TaaS): A recurring revenue model but requiring major shifts in financing, service delivery, and digital capabilities.
• Product Complexity: Managing multiple drivetrains (ICE, BEV, FCEV) increases costs; modularization and standardization are essential for scalability.
• Ownership Shift: Customers move from fixed ownership to usage-based models, demanding flexibility and integrated digital services.
  OEMs must invest in zero-emission platforms, digital infrastructure, flexible manufacturing, strategic partnerships, workforce reskilling, and cost optimization.

Emerging Trends

Key trends reshaping the industry:

• Decarbonization: ZETs (BEV, FCEV) require significant investment, but infrastructure gaps and TCO uncertainties remain.
• Digitalization: Telematics, predictive maintenance, and integrated services redefine aftersales and customer interactions.
• Ownership Change: Customers seek flexibility through TaaS, subscriptions, and pay-per-use models.
• Geopolitical and Regulatory Pressures: Supply chain disruptions, energy volatility, and evolving regulations introduce operational risks.

Key Uncertainties

• ZET Transition: Path to carbon neutrality is uncertain, with regulatory hurdles, cost pressures, and infrastructure gaps.
• Ownership Preferences: While TaaS grows, traditional ownership remains strong due to accounting and legacy concerns.
• Product Complexity: Balancing customization with standardization is challenging as OEMs manage multiple drivetrains.

Scenarios

Four scenarios depict possible futures:

1. High Complexity + TaaS: High customization and service-based ownership, requiring massive R&D and service ecosystems.
2. Standardization + TaaS: Standardized ZETs with subscription models, enabling economies of scale but limiting customer variety.
3. High Complexity + Traditional Ownership: Evolutionary transition, high margins but limited innovation risks.
4. Standardization + Traditional Ownership: Electric dominance with light capital commitment, but residual risks and service revenue declines.

Financial Implications

• Each scenario demands significant investment in R&D, manufacturing flexibility, captive finance, and digital services.
• High-complexity scenarios require substantial capital for TaaS infrastructure; standardized scenarios leverage economies of scale.

No-Regret Moves

OEMs must undertake actions regardless of the scenario:

1. Invest in modular platforms for zero-emission vehicles.
2. Transform digital capabilities (telematics, predictive maintenance, APIs).
3. Ensure flexible manufacturing to handle fluctuating demand and drivetrain diversity.
4. Secure strategic partnerships with suppliers (e.g., battery, hydrogen, software).
5. Focus on cost reduction through rationalized portfolios and efficient supply chains.

Conclusion

The future of the commercial vehicle market requires OEMs to balance adaptability and efficiency. Proactive investment in modular platforms, digital services, and partnerships is essential. The industry's transformation is driven by customer demands, regulatory pressures, and technological innovation.