2025全球商用车市场的未来及原始设备制造商行动的必要性研究报告_35页_2mb

The commercial vehicle industry is undergoing a transformative shift driven by decarbonization, digitalization, regulatory pressures, and evolving customer expectations. Key trends include the rise of truck-as-a-service (TaaS), product complexity from multiple drivetrains (ICE, BEV, FCEV), and changing ownership models. Geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain issues further complicate the landscape.

Four potential strategic scenarios emerge by 2035, each combining technical complexity (high vs. standard) and ownership models (traditional vs. TaaS). These scenarios have distinct implications for OEMs:

1. High Complexity + TaaS: High customization, shifting ownership to service models, demanding strong digital capabilities and recurring revenue.
2. Standardization + TaaS: Standardized electric fleets, subscription-based models, AI-driven management and reliance on digital services.
3. High Complexity + Traditional Ownership: Continued customization, traditional purchasing models, but face technological obsolescence risks.
4. Standardization + Traditional Ownership: Standardized BEVs, traditional ownership retained, focusing on efficiency and economies of scale.

Each scenario impacts OEM value chains differently, affecting R&D, procurement, manufacturing, captive finance, sales, and aftersales. Financially, high-complexity scenarios require massive upfront investment, while standardized ones offer better cost predictability. In all cases, transitioning to TaaS increases capital intensity and shifts revenue to service-based models.

To navigate this uncertainty, OEMs should implement five no-regret moves regardless of the eventual scenario:

• Invest in modular, zero-emission platforms to support diverse drivetrains.
• Transform the digital backbone for fleet management, predictive maintenance, and telematics.
• Establish flexible manufacturing capabilities to handle varying volumes and drive types.
• Secure strategic partnerships to access critical technologies (batteries, hydrogen, semiconductors).
• Focus on cost reduction and resource optimization, eliminating outdated systems.

The future demands dual preparation: adapting to disruptive changes while optimizing current operations. OEMs must build foundational capabilities in modularity, digital services, and flexible manufacturing to retain competitiveness across all potential futures.