2022-05-16-世界银行-2022年移民与发展简报（EN）_65页_1mb

A War in a Pandemic: Implications of the Ukraine Crisis and COVID-19 on Global Governance of Migration and Remittance Flows

1. Overview

• 2022 Remittances: Global remittances to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are projected to grow by 4.2%, reaching $630 billion.
• Prior Growth: Remittances grew by 8.6% in 2021, exceeding initial estimates.
• Impact of Crises: Both COVID-19 and the Ukraine war disrupt remittance flows and migration trends, posing risks to developing countries' economic stability.

2. Global Governance Implications

• Concessional Financing Facility for Migration (CFFM): Proposed to support migration programs and address financing gaps.
• Payment Systems: The exclusion of Russia from SWIFT may fragment international payment systems, increasing remittance costs and complicating cross-border flows.
• Data and Policy Recommendations: Improved data collection through initiatives like the International Working Group on Remittance Flows, and simplified AML/CFT procedures for small remittances, are crucial.

3. Regional Trends

• Europe and Central Asia: Remittances to the region surged in 2021 but are projected to decline in 2022 due to disruptions from the war.
• Latin America and Caribbean: Remittances continued strong, driven by U.S economic recovery, though risks include inflation and border security measures.
• Middle East and North Africa: Remittances provided critical financial lifelines, but high food and fuel costs exacerbate economic pressures.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Remittances recovered significantly in 2021, but dependency on imports makes the region highly vulnerable to commodity price hikes.
• East Asia and Pacific: Remittances recovered, supported by regional economic activity, though digitalization and formalization of flows are key challenges.

4. Migration Trends

• Ukraine Exodus: Over 5.5 million Ukrainians displaced in two months, the fastest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII.
• Global Migrant Stock: Increased to around 286 million in 2022 due to the Ukraine crisis.

5. Key Challenges and Recommendations

• SDG Compliance: Reducing remittance costs (Target 10.c.1) and improving data (Indicator 17.3.2) need urgent focus.
• Refugee Support: Access to remittances, jobs, and social services for refugees, especially vulnerable groups like women and children, is paramount.
• Global Cooperation: Strengthening partnerships for migration governance and leveraging private sector financing for sustainable solutions.