20150827-大华银行-FX_Insights_11页_964kb

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of various foreign exchange (FX) pairs and their short-term and medium-term outlooks, based on recent market movements and economic indicators. The focus is on the USD and its relative performance against other major currencies, as well as the EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY, SGD, MYR, THB, and CNH. The analysis includes key support and resistance levels, market sentiment, and potential price ranges for the upcoming periods.

Main FX Pairs and Outlooks

EUR/USD: 1.1335

• 24-Hour View: A short-term top is in place. The corrective pull-back could extend to test the major support at 1.1215, possibly 1.1105.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. A deeper pull-back is expected, but a break below 1.1215 is unlikely. Strong resistance is at 1.1560 and 1.1625.
• Key Levels: S1: 1.1215, S2: 1.1105, R1: 1.1560, R2: 1.1625

USD/SGD: 1.4045

• 24-Hour View: The SGD settled near 1.4064/USD, with a range of 1.4055-1.4198 expected.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. The pair is likely to consolidate within a broad range, with support at 1.3940 and 1.3890, and resistance at 1.4110 and 1.4200.
• Key Levels: S1: 1.3940, S2: 1.3890, R1: 1.4110, R2: 1.4200

EUR/SGD: 1.5930

• 24-Hour View: The sharp drop from the high of 1.6235 appears over-extended. A retest of the overnight low near 1.5870 is expected, with 1.5820 likely to hold for a rebound to 1.6010.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. Pull-back could extend to test 1.5740, but a break is unlikely. Resistance is at 1.6100 and 1.6240.
• Key Levels: S1: 1.5820, S2: 1.5740, R1: 1.6100, R2: 1.6240

GBP/SGD: 2.1745

• 24-Hour View: GBP fell sharply to 2.1710, with a possible extension to 2.1620. A move above 2.1860 would indicate easing downward pressure.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. Pull-back could extend to 2.1420, but a break is unlikely. Resistance is at 2.1920 and 2.2100.
• Key Levels: S1: 2.1620, S2: 2.1420, R1: 2.1920, R2: 2.2100

AUD/SGD: 0.9995

• 24-Hour View: The target of 0.9930 was not met, with a low of 0.9940/45. Downward momentum is waning, and a recovery to 1.0040 is expected.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bearish. A move lower to retest the year's low near 0.9915 is likely, with a stop-loss lowered to 1.0110.
• Key Levels: S1: 0.9930, S2: 0.9915, R1: 1.0040, R2: 1.0150

JPY/SGD: 1.1705

• 24-Hour View: JPY rebounded from a low of 1.1640. The pair is expected to range between 1.1640 and 1.1780.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. Choppiness is expected within a broad range, with support at 1.1540 and resistance at 1.1840 and 1.1930.
• Key Levels: S1: 1.1540, S2: 1.1460, R1: 1.1840, R2: 1.1930

USD/MYR: 4.2400

• 24-Hour View: USD hit a fresh high of 4.2950, with a pull-back expected. A move below 4.1850 would indicate a short-term top.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish. A recovery to 4.3000 or 4.2800 is expected, with support at 4.2000 and 4.1850.
• Key Levels: S1: 4.2000, S2: 4.1850, R1: 4.3000, R2: 4.3500

USD/THB: 35.62

• 24-Hour View: USD/THB is in a consolidation phase, with a range between 35.35 and 35.85 expected.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Neutral. A short-term top is in place, with a pull-back likely but not expected to break below 35.30.
• Key Levels: S1: 35.40, S2: 35.30, R1: 35.70, R2: 35.90

USD/CNH: 6.4880

• 24-Hour View: USD/CNH is in a consolidation phase, likely between 6.4750 and 6.5000.
• 1-3 Weeks View: Bullish. A break above 6.5300 or 6.5600 could indicate further strength, but a move below 6.4300 would negate the bullish view.
• Key Levels: S1: 6.4700, S2: 6.4300, R1: 6.5300, R2: 6.5600

Key Economic Indicators and Data

FX Forecast for 3Q15 to 2Q16

Summary of Market Sentiment and Risks

• The USD is showing signs of consolidation and potential pull-back, with mixed signals across different markets.
• The EUR and GBP are expected to remain in a corrective phase, with support levels at 1.1215, 1.1105, 1.5420, and 1.5330 respectively.
• The AUD is in a bearish phase, with a potential retest of the year's low at 0.9915.
• The JPY is in a neutral phase with a consolidation range expected.
• The SGD and MYR are influenced by domestic economic data and policy decisions, with potential for further weakness.
• The CNH shows mixed momentum, with a bullish outlook but potential for a pull-back.

Conclusion

The report highlights a mixed outlook for the USD across different currency pairs, with consolidation and pull-back expected in some cases and potential for further strength in others. Key support and resistance levels are identified for each pair, and the analysis suggests that the market is in a phase of sideways trading with limited directional movement in the near term. Economic indicators and upcoming data releases will play a crucial role in shaping future trends.