2015年-世界发展银行全球_Kyrgyz_Republic___Poverty_Profile_for_2013_54页_2mb

Kyrgyz Republic: Poverty Profile for 2013 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of poverty trends and drivers of change in the Kyrgyz Republic over the period 2003-2013, alongside employment dynamics and multidimensional poverty estimates. It highlights the role of economic growth, remittances, and labor market shifts in shaping poverty outcomes and offers insights into the structural and demographic factors influencing these trends.

Main Points

• Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction: The Kyrgyz Republic experienced volatile but positive economic growth over the last decade. Despite this, it underperformed compared to other ECA countries with an average annual GDP growth of 4%. Poverty rates dropped significantly from 68% in 2003 to 37% in 2013, largely due to growth in private consumption and remittances. However, recent progress has slowed, and the sustainability of this growth model is questionable.

• Sectoral Shifts: The services sector was the fastest-growing segment of the economy, while agriculture, once a dominant sector, has been in decline. The shift in employment from agriculture to services and construction reflects a structural transformation in the labor market. The informal sector dominates employment, with about 70% of total employment being informal.

• Migration and Remittances: Migration from the Kyrgyz Republic to Russia and Kazakhstan has been a key factor in employment and poverty reduction. However, the trend has decelerated since 2011, and the share of households receiving remittances has declined, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of this model.

• Poverty Trends by Region and Quintiles: There was significant convergence in urban and rural poverty rates between 2003 and 2012, with the gap narrowing to 4 percentage points. However, in 2013, the gap widened again to over 11 percentage points. Poverty trends also varied significantly across oblasts, with some areas experiencing downward trends while others saw stagnation or increases.

• Demographic Characteristics: The Kyrgyz Republic has a relatively young population, with about 30% under 14 years old. The majority of the poor are young, with a stable proportion of under-15s among the poor. The correlation between poverty and household size is strong, but the incidence of poverty among the elderly is lower due to the pension system.

• Income Sources and Decomposition: The reduction in poverty was mainly driven by wage growth and real increases in pension benefits. Remittances played a smaller role, while social assistance and other non-labor income sources had limited impact due to their low reach and transfer amounts.

• Non-Monetary Poverty Indicators: Progress in non-income dimensions of poverty was mixed. Access to communication, heating, and electricity improved, but infrastructure-related deprivations like access to sewage and safe water remained significant contributors to multidimensional poverty.

• Labor Market Dynamics: The labor force participation rate has declined due to the shrinking share of the employed in the population. The rural employment ratio fell sharply between 2006 and 2008, and while the service sector has created jobs, the overall labor market remains vulnerable.

• Multidimensional Poverty: The report assesses multidimensional poverty from 2008 to 2012, highlighting that access to sewage and safe water were the largest contributors to poverty. These indicators remained critical, indicating ongoing challenges in infrastructure development.

Key Information

Poverty Trends

• National Poverty Rate: Declined from 68% in 2003 to 37% in 2013, with the most significant reductions occurring between 2003 and 2008.
• Poverty Gap Index: Improved over time, but the data suggests that the response of poverty to growth may be contracting, especially during periods of positive growth.
• Urban-Rural Poverty Gap: Narrowed significantly from 2003 to 2012 but sharply diverged in 2013, reaching over 11 percentage points.
• Oblast-Level Trends: Poverty reduction was uneven across regions, with some areas showing consistent improvement and others stagnating or increasing.

Employment Trends

• Labor Force Participation (LFPR): Declined over the last decade due to a shrinking share of the employed in the population.
• Sectoral Employment Shifts: Agriculture employment declined by a third between 2003 and 2012, while the service and construction sectors saw growth.
• Informal Employment: Dominated the labor market, with 70% of employment being informal, indicating low-quality jobs and limited job security.

Income Decomposition

• Wage Growth: Played a major role in poverty reduction, with a strong contribution from employment in the service sector.
• Pension Benefits: Increased in real value and contributed significantly to poverty reduction.
• Remittances and Social Assistance: Had a smaller impact compared to wage and pension growth, due to limited reach and transfer amounts.

Multidimensional Poverty

• Non-Monetary Indicators: Access to communication, heating, and electricity improved, but access to sewage and safe water remained the largest contributors to multidimensional poverty.
• Infrastructure Deficits: Were a major cause of non-income poverty, particularly in rural areas where investment in infrastructure is low.
• Consumption vs Non-Consumption Poverty: Weak correlation suggests the need to monitor both aspects for comprehensive policy guidance.

Social Indicators

• Demographic Transition: The Kyrgyz Republic is undergoing a demographic transition with declining fertility and infant mortality rates.
• Life Expectancy: Increased slightly, but at a slower pace compared to other ECA countries.
• Health and Education: Public spending on health and education increased, but there were no significant gender differences in school enrollment. The quality of education remains a concern, with poor performance in international assessments.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic has made notable progress in reducing poverty over the last decade, primarily through economic growth and remittances. However, the sustainability of this progress is uncertain, with recent trends indicating stagnation and regional disparities. The labor market is undergoing structural changes, and the informal sector remains a dominant part of the economy. Addressing non-income poverty through improved infrastructure and social protection programs is critical for achieving more inclusive and sustainable development.