世界发展银行-Rwanda-Economic-Update,-January-2020-_-Accelerating-Digital-Transformation-in-Rwanda_50页_2mb

报告摘要

Rwanda Economic Update Summary (January 2020, Edition No. 15)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of Rwanda's recent economic developments and outlines the country's digital transformation strategy. It highlights the drivers of economic growth, fiscal and external imbalances, and the challenges and opportunities in advancing the digital economy.

Main Points

Economic Growth in 2019

Rwanda's economy grew at a strong pace in 2019, with 10.9% growth in the first three quarters, up from 8.2% in 2018.
Public and private sector investments were the main drivers of this growth.
Construction was the fastest-growing sector, expanding by 30.2% in the first three quarters of 2019.
Manufacturing also saw robust growth at 12.3%, with key sub-sectors like wood, paper, and printing growing by 50%, non-metallic minerals by 38.5%, chemicals by 25%, and metal products by 17.2%.
Services expanded by 10.7%, with notable growth in trade, transport, professional and administrative services, and financial services.
Agriculture grew at 5.8%, slightly below the previous year's 6.6%, but still a healthy rate.
ICT was the fastest-growing sub-sector in the previous decade, but its output contracted in the first three quarters of 2019.

Fiscal and External Imbalances

Fiscal expansion under the National Strategy for Transformation (NST1) led to a 6.4% GDP deficit in FY2018/19, higher than the 5.2% projection.
Capital spending and net lending reached 15% of GDP, the highest level since FY2015/16.
Current account deficit (CAD) widened to 8.9% of GDP in the 12 months ending in June 2019.
External imbalances are expected to continue, with CAD at 10% of GDP in the medium term.
Concessional financing and monetary discipline help maintain debt sustainability.

Credit and Financial Sector

Credit growth accelerated to 20.1% in 2019, up from 8.2% in 2017-18.
Nonperforming loans (NPLs) fell to 5.3% of total loans, down from 8% in 2017.
The National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) implemented new regulations on credit classification and provisioning, which improved bank balance sheets.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

Digital Economy and Transformation

Rwanda has made significant progress in digital infrastructure, achieving high 3G and 4G network coverage.
The Digital Ambassadors Program (DAP) and e-service initiatives have enhanced digital public service delivery.
Rwanda has emerged as a top African performer in e-government and doing business rankings.

Digital Adoption and Barriers

Despite progress, digital adoption remains low, and domestic demand for digital services is still muted.
Broadband affordability and access to high-speed internet remain challenges.
A digital divide persists, particularly in terms of mobile money and high-speed internet uptake.

Human Capital and Skills

A large gap in basic digital literacy hinders widespread adoption of digital technologies.
Intermediate digital skills are increasingly important for formal sector employment.
Rwanda has pioneered innovative digital education schemes, but they need to scale and involve the private sector more.

Private Sector Role

The private sector's role in investment is critical for sustaining growth beyond the current fiscal expansion.
MSMEs have not fully adopted digital tools, limiting their productivity and export potential.
The digital entrepreneurship ecosystem is still nascent, with limited support for startups beyond early stages.

Regional Integration

Rwanda needs to lead efforts in creating a regional single digital market to enhance its digital economy.
Harmonization of legislation is essential to foster regional connectivity, data, and digital services markets.

Cybersecurity and Trust

Building a secure online environment and trust is key to sustaining digital adoption.
Rwanda should expand its cybersecurity capacities and data protection to support digital market integration.
A next-generation digital ID system is needed to enable safe online transactions.

Economic Outlook

2019 growth is projected at 8.5%, up from the 7.8% forecast in the previous edition.
Medium-term growth is expected to remain strong at around 8% annually.
Debt accumulation is likely to continue, driven by fiscal expansion.
Global economic slowdown and regional tensions pose external risks.
Climate shocks and weak domestic demand are domestic risks to growth.

Conclusion

Rwanda's digital transformation is a key strategy for economic growth and poverty reduction.
Sustaining growth will require increased private sector investment and improved market functioning.
Digital infrastructure and skills development have laid a strong foundation, but scaling efforts and regional integration are essential for long-term success.

References

World Bank Group data
National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR)
National Bank of Rwanda (BNR)
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
World Economic Forum (WEF)
East African Community (EAC) statistics

Figures and Tables

Figure 1.1: Global and regional economic growth, 2015-21f
Figure 1.2: Prices for Rwanda's main exports and imports, 2017-19
Figure 1.3: Growth in EAC countries, 2013-18 and 2019f
Figure 1.4: Rwanda's economic growth, 2016-19
Figure 1.5: Demand and real GDP growth, 2016-19
Figure 1.6: Headline inflation, 2016-19
Figure 1.7: Changes in interest rates, December 2018-September 2019
Figure 1.8: Depreciation of Rwanda franc against the US dollar, 2014-19
Figure 1.9: Gross international reserves, 2016-19
Figure 1.10: Government spending and revenues, 2009-19
Figure 1.11: Drivers of changes in public spending, 2014-19
Figure 1.12: Decomposition of public debt accumulation, 2009-18
Figure 1.13: Tax years needed to repay public debt, 2006-18
Figure 1.14: Decomposition of Rwanda's public debt, 2007-18
Figure 2.1: Institutional framework for digital development
Figure 2.2: Access to international bandwidth - capacity and speed
Figure 2.3: Length of national transmission network and population within reach
Figure 2.4: Mobile broadband coverage
Figure 2.5: Households possessing mobile phone, Rwanda and East Africa
Figure 2.6: Mobile Internet subscriptions by technology, 2019 and affordability of 1GB of data, 2017
Figure 2.7: Digital skills benchmarking
Figure 2.8: Regional benchmarking: Share of population that is unregistered
Figure 2.9: The logistics performance index 2018: Rwanda profile
Figure 2.10: Penetration of financial institution accounts versus mobile money accounts
Figure 2.11: Venture capital raised by African startups and amount of startup funding raised by select African countries
Figure 2.12: East Africa is the 9th largest global market by population

Tables

Table 1.1: Composition of new loans
Table 1.2: The current account balance and financing
Table 1.3: Rwanda's public finances, 2015/16 to 2019/20
Table 1.4: GDP growth, 2016-21f

Boxes

Box 1.1: Drivers of Rwanda's public and publicly guaranteed debt and fiscal space
Box 1.2: Major economic reforms in 2019
Box 2.1: Creating single digital market

展开完整摘要