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Summary of "The Case for Negative Emissions"

Core Content

This report, published by the Coalition for Negative Emissions in June 2021, emphasizes the critical role of negative emissions in limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It argues that without large-scale deployment of negative emissions solutions, even if all emissions reduction targets are met, the world will still exceed the carbon budget and face irreversible climate impacts by 2040.

The report outlines the urgency of scaling up negative emissions technologies and practices, highlighting that they are not a substitute for emissions reductions but an essential complement. It presents a comprehensive overview of the current state of negative emissions solutions, their potential, and the challenges that must be overcome to achieve the necessary deployment.

Main Points

1. Negative Emissions Are Essential

• Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires both emissions reductions and negative emissions.
• Current global emissions are on a trajectory that will exceed the 1.5°C threshold by 2040.
• Negative emissions solutions include:
  • Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)
  • Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACS)
  • Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) such as reforestation and wetland restoration.

2. The World Is Far Off Track

• The current pipeline of negative emissions projects is insufficient to meet the 2025 target, with projections indicating that the required capacity will be missed by over 80%.
• Investment in negative emissions is severely underfunded, at around 30 times less than what is needed to support the 1.5°C pathway.

3. A Portfolio of Solutions Is Needed

• A mix of solutions is necessary to meet the diverse needs of the climate pathway.
• Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) can be deployed rapidly and offer co-benefits like biodiversity protection and improved water quality.
• BECCS and DACS are more technically advanced and offer long-term storage with lower risk of reversal, but they require significant investment and infrastructure development.

4. Negative Emissions Can Be Cost-Effective

• The cost of negative emissions solutions is expected to decrease significantly with large-scale deployment.
• Based on an illustrative portfolio, the average cost is estimated to be between £30 to £100 per tonne of CO₂ by 2050, which is much lower than current cost projections.
• Scaling these solutions could reduce the total cost to between £7 trillion to £10 trillion, which is £3 trillion to £6 trillion cheaper than current estimates.

5. Societal and Environmental Co-Benefits

• Negative emissions can bring significant social co-benefits, including the creation of 4 to 10 million new jobs and skills transfer from traditional energy sectors.
• Environmental co-benefits include enhanced biodiversity, improved water quality, and reduced coastal storm risks through NCS.

Key Challenges

• Supply: There is no consensus on what constitutes "high-quality" negative emissions, and early-stage solutions face funding challenges.
• Intermediation: A fragmented and immature market lacks the infrastructure (exchanges, benchmarks, data) needed to support trading and financing.
• Demand: Companies and governments are uncertain about the value and role of negative emissions, and how to integrate them into their strategies.

Call to Action

To scale negative emissions solutions effectively, the report proposes five substantive actions:

1. Define High-Quality Negative Emissions: Establish clear criteria for quality and sustainability.
2. Develop Transparent Markets: Create robust, liquid, and transparent markets for negative emissions credits and supply-side financing.
3. Strengthen National Commitments: Governments must provide incentives and mandates to support supply and drive demand for negative emissions.
4. Standardize Corporate Claims: Develop clear accounting principles and narratives to transparently track and celebrate corporate negative emissions efforts.
5. Promote Multilateral Collaboration: Encourage global trade and cooperation to address the negative emissions challenge collectively.

Conclusion

The Coalition for Negative Emissions calls for immediate and coordinated action to scale up negative emissions solutions. They highlight the importance of market development, policy support, and technological innovation in achieving the 1.5°C target. The report aims to catalyze a solutions-driven dialogue among stakeholders ahead of COP26, emphasizing the need for transparency, investment, and collaboration.

Key Figures

• 2025 Target: The world needs to achieve 0.5 to 1.2 Gt of CO₂ removal per year.
• 2050 Target: Negative emissions must reach 6 to 10 Gt of CO₂ removal per year.
• Current Pipeline: Only 650 Mt of CO₂ removal capacity is expected to be operational by 2021, far below the required level.
• Cost Reduction: Large-scale deployment could reduce the cost of negative emissions significantly.