devinit-贫穷趋势：全球、区域和国家（英）-2021.11-29页_285kb

Summary of Poverty Trends: Global, Regional and National

Core Content

This document provides an overview of global, regional and national poverty trends, highlighting the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the progress made in poverty reduction over the past decade. It also outlines the methods used to measure economic poverty and the challenges in data availability and timeliness.

Main Points

Global Poverty Trends

• Extreme Poverty: In 2021, an estimated 698 million people (9% of the global population) live in extreme poverty, defined as living on less than $1.90 per day.
• Poverty Reduction: Global extreme poverty has decreased significantly since 2010, from 1.1 billion (16% of the global population) to 698 million in 2021.
• Impact of the Pandemic: The global economic downturn caused by the pandemic led to an estimated 50 million more people living in extreme poverty between 2019 and 2020.
• Recovery and Projections: As economies began to recover in 2021, extreme poverty decreased slightly, but it remains 8 million higher than in 2019. By 2026, the World Bank and IMF project that 525 million people will still live in extreme poverty (6% of the global population), making the SDG target of ending extreme poverty by 2030 unlikely to be achieved.

Poverty Measured by Higher International Lines

• $3.20 and $5.50 Lines: The number of people living in poverty according to the $3.20 and $5.50 lines has also increased since 2019.
• Global Projections: By 2026, it is estimated that 3 billion people will live below the $5.50 line, and 1.5 billion below the $3.20 line.

Regional and National Poverty Trends

• East Asia, the Pacific and South Asia: These regions have seen dramatic reductions in extreme poverty, especially in China and India. Between 2010 and 2021, over 407 million people moved out of extreme poverty in these two countries.

• China: The extreme poverty headcount dropped from 152 million in 2010 to 2 million in 2021, a reduction of 150 million.

• India: The extreme poverty headcount fell from 365 million in 2010 to 109 million in 2021, a reduction of 257 million.

• Other Countries in the Region: Indonesia, the Philippines, and several others also experienced significant reductions in extreme poverty.

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Extreme poverty has increased in most countries in this region, with the largest increases in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan.

• Global Share of Poverty: In 2021, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 66% of the global extreme poverty population, up from 37% in 2010.

• Conflict-Affected Countries: In countries affected by conflict and fragility, extreme poverty has increased significantly. Yemen saw the largest increase, with 16 million more people living in extreme poverty. Venezuela and Syria also experienced major increases, though data accuracy is a challenge in these contexts.

Key Information

Data Availability and Timeliness

• The most recent global poverty data published by the World Bank is from 2017, with partial data up to 2019. Missing data from India has delayed global estimates.
• To estimate 2020 and 2021 poverty figures, data from the World Bank's PovcalNet was used, combined with 85% of the forecasted GDP per capita growth rates from the IMF.
• Current poverty measures are incomplete and do not capture within-household differences or the living standards of the poorest people.

Poverty Measurement

• Absolute Poverty: Measured by the international extreme poverty line of $1.90 per person per day.
• Relative Poverty: Defined by income or expenditure relative to the rest of the population.
• Higher Poverty Lines: $3.20 and $5.50 per person per day are used to reflect higher basic needs in more developed countries.

Challenges

• Poverty data is often delayed and incomplete, making it difficult to monitor progress towards the SDGs.
• The pandemic has highlighted the need for more timely and detailed data to respond effectively to poverty issues.

Conclusion

The document underscores the significant progress in reducing extreme poverty globally, particularly in East Asia, the Pacific, and South Asia. However, it also highlights the challenges posed by the pandemic and conflict in increasing poverty levels, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and conflict-affected countries. The need for more accurate and timely data remains crucial for effective poverty monitoring and policy-making.